Obama, 60 minutes and the "mystery Republican"

Mr. Obama said in an interview broadcast Sunday on CBS’s “60 Minutes” that there would be at least one Republican in his cabinet; he would not say when he might announce his first cabinet nominations, except to say “soon.”

The above comment came today in the New York Times on the Day when Senator John McCain met with President-elect Obama in Chicago. Clearly there would be no job offer for the former competitor for the White House. However, who is the mystery Republican ?

It could be suggested that the two most obvious choices are either Colin Powell (Secretary for Defense ?) or Arnold Schwarzenegger (Governor of California).

The former (along with rumoured Secretary of State candidate Hilary Clinton) would transform the face of the US overseas overnight given their near universal name recognition.

More interestingly, what for Governor Schwarznegger ? He cannot run for President or Vice-President by virtue of being born abroad. His term of office in California is set to end on January 3rd, 2011.

Without US law being re-written (and why would the Democrats seek to aid a potential rival in the 2012 election ?) where can he go ? I would very much like to see a Senator Schwarzenegger or perhaps even Secretary for Homeland Security or Defense - his movie reputation alone must surely be worth a US Navy Carrier Battle Group...

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Obama, US Politics

The US election 2008: Final result

Looking out of the window this morning I noticed in the bright autumnal sunlight of New York a queue emerging at the polling station over the road - a portend that the sheer level of interest in the election would lead to a long day.

By this evening the polls were gradually confirming the election of Democrat Senator Barack Obama to the post of president of the United States.

Reflecting on the past 18 months I suspect analysts would note that the economic crash in mid-September played a major role in unwinding the gradual catch-up in the polls made by Republican Senator John McCain.

Undoubtedly the incumbent party faced challenge, though issues such as Iraq played a lesser role in the campaign.

The challenge now, for whomever might have run, is to address the major economic and foreign policy challenges - something that would handicap either candidate.

That said, the campaign was very well plotted out on the ground and clearly the titanic battle with Hilary Clinton pushing the Obama fundraising machine to a level which enabled blanket media coverage in the final two months.

On a personal note, I felt that John McCain's story was one which really deserved to be rewarded by the Post. "Political life rarely in any country, a wry observer once noted, matches effort with reward".

US Election 2008: Key elements of the strategic battlefield

There are three issues in thinking through the strategies being employed by Democrat and Republican Presidential candidates John McCain (R) and Barack Obama (D); State electoral college votes, demographics, and ethnicity.

A: Electoral College votes (Top 10 out of 538 total votes with 270 as the target for election victory represent nearly half (47%) or 256 votes).

1. California - 55
2. Texas - 34
3. New York - 31
4. Florida - 27
5. Illinois - 21
6. Pennsylvania - 21
7. Ohio - 20
8. Michigan - 17
9. Georgia - 15
10. North Carolina - 15

B: Voter Demographics (using US Government census report concerning the November 2004 Presidential election).

Age group numbers % voted % registered
18-24 47 58
55+ 72 79

74 percent of women and 71 percent of men entitled to vote were registered at the time of the 2004 election. In addition, of the 215 million registered voters some 24 million are veterans of the armed services.


C: Ethnicity (again, data derived from US Census of Nov 2004 election)
Ethic Group registered % Voted % number voters
White 73.6 65.4 162.9m
Black 68.7 60.0 23.3m
Asian 51.8 44.1 6.2m
Hispanic 57.9 47.2 16.0m

The final 2008 US Presidential debate: re-arranging deck-chairs on the Titanic ?

I attended the final Presidential debate of the 2008 election in the United States last night, held on Long Island adjacent to New York City at Hofstra University.

The experience itself said much about American politics in the modern age. As an exercise in organisation it was quite amazing. Clearly security is the number one concern in the minds of the Secret Service - Hofstra University is relatively remote and driving in, one could not help but notice the concrete barracades, police cars on every street corner and probably most of the East Coast Secret Service contingent, whom I must say were courteous and helpful to the last man and woman.

The students were kept amused and, by and large, away from the debate hall with a lottery to which some 6,000 students signed up for a few tickets to attend in person.

The media were provided with an excellent filing centre in a vast sports hall from which to watch and comment on proceedings. Additionally a hospitality tent provided by Anheuser-Busch (thank you Cindy McCain!) provided a mix of food and drink and a chance to hob-nob with the spin doctors and news anchors - plus get commerative mugs and other merchandise.

The debate hall itself was the political equivalent of the Oscars or even the Superbowl. Mitt Romney, Hilary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Governor David Patterson were all present and correct to name a few.

The debate itself was interesting from the perspective of watching other peoples reactions. In the media centre journalists found the "Joe the Plumber" debate amusing and also seemed to enjoy watching McCain battle against a very cool, almost cold Senator Obama. It had the atmosphere of a title fight where people were egging McCain on to land more punches.

A very interesting point of contrast in campaign strategy was in evidence at the media centre. Hofstra students were present, helpfully distributing transcripts of segments of the debate to a hungry media croud.

Meanwhile a team of McCain*Palin students were delivering one page rebuttals of Obama policy synchronised to some seventeen (to my count) elements of the debate. No sooner had the Joe the Plumber story on tax been told than a blue sheet outlining the detail behind the flaws in the Democrat proposal landed next to me. Very interesting, as there was no riposte from the Obama camp other than SMS messages - which apparently students outside the debate enclosure found exciting.

Personally, shaping the media output to the nation seems to best SMS texts to those already likely to vote to you. One up strategically to the McCain team.

Getting out of the debate afterwards was sheer hell. No buses, no knowledge of how to get where led to some amusing discussions amongst the variety of people mingling with students hoping to see their idols. Of course, the security ensured that both candidates and their entourages were long gone into the night and the final few weeks of campaigning ahead of November 5th.

Notes from the edge of the financial volcano

Standing on the precipice in New York City about one mile from Wall Street the changes in dynamics for both the US election 2008 and world economy can be felt.

Election 2008 has become a side-show.  Whomever wins the Presidency, they will be faced with the nightmare of three months trying to build an administration whilst simultaneously trying to stem the negative tide of economic news and investor sentiment.  

Warren Buffet will be appointed to a senior role by either Party - you heard it here first.

The economy is sliding fast as liquidity fears are being realised - and a'la Hobbes everyone is seeking to preserve their own position.  An interesting question is what is happening to the Chinese economic miracle ?  time to fasten seat-belts.

No limit [$700 bn] stakes poker - Washington style

Global stockmarkets are about to spend a couple of days feeding off one another in an ever descending cycle of economic violence - 21st Century style.

The failure of the US political system to reach agreement today led immediately to a sell-off in US markets. The failure itself, whilst a leadership blunder tarnishing the reputations of all political parties represented distinct philosophical differences.

Democrats favour a maximalist approach to protecting savings of individual people and capping executive pay, whilst Republicans see minimal government involvement in markets as being crucial to American prosperity.

It is a difficult square to circle, not helped by the Presidential elections - a number of politicians are up for re-election and therefore focused on their own futures. Congress will reconvene on Thursday, and whilst a new plan could be brokered in the next 48 hours it cannot be brought into force until then.

The consequence is two days of economic turmoil with no political solution in sight. Time to raise, hold or call ?

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Election 2008, US Election 2008, US economy, World economy

A week is a long time in Presidential politics...

A week of immense economic upheaval in the United States driven by a financial crisis has proved illuminating in terms of analysing political campaign strategy.

Taking a leaf from military strategy John McCain has kept Senator Barack Obama off-balance, guessing whether or not he would participate in the first of four televised political debates this evening. Further McCain beat Obama to the punch in terms of 'suspending' his political campaign and travelling to Washington to play his part in trying to resolve the Congressional deadlock.

Travelling to 'save' Washington appears to be a theme - attending the 2008 Clinton Global Initiative meeting in New York, the closing plenary session had former President Bill Clinton introducing Prime Minister Gordon Brown en rout to save Washington - and his own reputation in the UK. That said, if the Bretton Woods regime is about to be re-assessed it is better that Britain is there than not.

Turning to the first Presidential debate, in the aftermath the media, who are far from the partisan people we know abroad via Robert redford in "All the President's men" have leant towards a 'draw' or a win for Obama.

I personally see the outcome differently. Although the subject for the debate was foreign affairs - a strong suit for John McCain - and Obama acquitted himself well, I think the Democrat candidate failed to read enough military strategy. Obama's team failed to take the initiative or rather allowed the enemy (John McCain) to dictate the terms of the debate.

I am personally very surprised that Obama did not slant his answers towards the number one issue of concern, the economy. Instead he agreed frequently with John McCain (expect to see some web advert imminently) and appeared the junior, whilst JOhn McCain planted a succession of punches on him repeatedly "he does not understand..."

Senator Obama should, in my own opinion, have been more aggressive in turning answers back to the US economy - which people are really worried about right now.

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Democrats, Election 2008, McCain, Republican, Obama

Labour Party Leadership elections - what ?

In lieu of a conflict abroad to distract a bored populace, a potential change of political leadership can offer a whiff of excitement.

However, the Labour Party are setting themselves up for an autumn PR debacle which might come back to haunt them.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is suffering from the MacMillan dictum of "events, dear boy, events". The economy is 'tanking' people are nervous and so, who would provide better political leadership at all at present ? In any Party ?? Arguably no-one can hold back the tide of economic woe at this point in time.

So, argue the strategists throw up the idea of change in political leadership just before conference season, have everyone rally around the PM and create a temporary feel-good 'blitz' type feeling nationally. Failing that, maybe some economic indicator somewhere will show a positive blip to latch onto...

However, in the longer term (i.e. next 12 months) as election season draws near the Labour Party are offering their opponents ammunition by the bucket-full - the economy is going south and Labour are arguing over the deck chairs kind of messaging. Not good for anyone.

As to the Conservative Party - whilst they have made gains people are going to be sufficiently afraid that the next election in 2009/10 will be a '1992 moment' for Labour. They will be reelected, but with a slim majority.

The only chance of a Conservative win is in making inroads into Liberal Democrat seats, and I am certain they will not be accommodating, having a longer track record at managing local councils.

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UK Politics, Gordon Brown, Labour Party

The [electoral] road gets increasingly tougher for the Democrat Party...

Democrat Party members must be wishing they could turn the clock back to the timeframe prior to the Convention season. Democrat Senator Barack Obama enjoyed a substantial lead over Republican John McCain. The media were squarely behind the Democrat effort and opinion polls showed a satisfying lead.

The decision of the Democrat party to forego public contributions to their campaign - because they believed that grass roots contributions would far outstrip the potential under a capped system - could have been a mirage. The McCain took public funding and have enjoyed additional funding courtesy of a more engaged Party. The cash burn by the Obama campaign needs getting under control - fast.

Three weeks on and Barack Obama is being reported as making gaffs regarding Christianity and Islam, attacking the popular Republican VP pick, Sarah Palin mixing up his pit-bulls and pigs.

The perceived poor treatment of former President Bill and Senator Hilary Clinton by the Democrat Party has done little to aid them. One can imagine Hilary doing the bare minimum to blunt the "Palin offensive" by the McCain in order to put the Democrat Party in its place post election with a "I told you so" and position herself as the heir for the 2012 Presidential election. This thought seems to be borne out by her press conference in Florida at the behest of Obama where she refused to attack Sarah Palin.

Obama, meanwhile is due to meet with President Clinton at the Clinton campaign headquarters in New York to seek advice on the election - does that not seem a little late in the day ?

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Democrats, Republican, US Election 2008

If only it was about Character...

John McCain ended the Republican convention this evening having accepted his party's nomination to be the Presidential campaign candidate for the forthcoming November elections.

No doubt his speech will be compared with Democrat Senator Barack Obama - not as flashy, longer, indoors not outdoors etc. etc.

What his speech did do was set out a platform to target small town American voters in middle America and the West. His Vice-President Sarah Palin will only add to the Senators appeal and appears to be a dangerous opponent should the Democrats lower their guard and possessing several layers of defence against any charges her enemies should employ.

The speech also was successful in laying out a number of hooks to trap policy makers on the Democrat side. In addition it enabled the candidate to layout his stall as a family man, away from the way he is normally viewed.

The only down sides were two protestors seeking to disrupt his speech and for some Republicans the lack of reference to George Bush - McCain has leap frogged them to compare himself with Ronald Reagan's viewpoint, a shrewd move.

McCain's gamble, if successful will be to paint the election as being driven by character. If this becomes the case he will win hands-down and cause one of the largest electoral upsets. Hilary Clinton will also be gnashing her teeth that he has to refer to another woman as "Mrs. Vice-President"

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Election 2008, McCain, Republican

What of the current President's legacy ?

Whilst watching President George Bush's address to the Republican National Conference via satellite link, I wondered as to what in his own mind's eye would be the ultimate impression he would like to leave in the minds of the American public.

I then thought back to the reports circulating that the location of the leader of the Al-Quaeda terrorist network, Osama Bin Laden was within a relatively small area in Pakistan near the Afghan border.

Next I see the first cross-border raid by US forces without Pakistani approval was reported today.  Is the President planning chlandestine activity with the aim of capturing Bin Laden before the clock runs out on his Presidency.

What a gift that would be to the American Public, his Presidential legacy and, not unimportantly, the odds for his successor Senator John McCain.

Sarah Palin hits a home run for the McCain team

Last night in St. Paul, Minneapolis at the 2008 Republican National Convention, Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin emerged onto the National stage and made an excellent speech.  The presentation was flawless, the speech crafted beautifully and rehearsed thoroughly to present Sarah Palin in the best light and create maximum appeal.

I am also sure from her body language that she is a formidable politician, more than capable of damning her opposition with faint praise as they say in Britain.  She rebuked the media attention on her family, introducing them in a brady-bunch, family next door kind of way - she took the fight to Democrats Obama and Biden, head on flagging their lack of experience in running an organisation - and made great capital by turning Obama's experience as a "community organiser" into a pejorative, echoing the pummeling given in the warm-up speech from former New York mayor, Rudi Gulliani.

At the level fo grand [political] strategy Sarah Palin has, in addition, served the military requirements of McCain's campaign to provide a diversion for the enemy - attracting both the fire and spotlight while McCain forges on - somewhat like the tortoise against the Obama Hare.  Of course we all know what ultimately transpires in that marathon tale...

In addition for the Republican Party, they risk being out-spent by the Democrats in their record-making election fundraising efforts.  Having the former CEO of eBay for advice on how to leverage the internet must be a plus, as having Sarah Palin's freshness attract media attention - at no financial cost to the campaign coffers.

A week[end] is a long time in politics...

Labor Day weekend holiday, USA, 2008.   In the Hamptons the summer sun and blue skies shine whilst visitors fire up their barbeques for the final time or else get early onto the I495 highway to head home.

Less than a week ago, Barack Obama had the country talking about his acceptance speech of the Democrat nomination in Denver, Colorado.


After a weekend where Republican Senator John McCain announced a female Vice-Presidential pick, Sarah Palin of Alaska - she and a Hurricane heading for New Orleans have dominated the news.

From the first comments regarding who she is through to concerns about her unmarried pregnant daughter Palin has taken eyes off the no-show by President Bush and Vice-Preident Cheney at the convention (accident or deisgn for McCain - deliberate snub by Bush ?)

The net outcome is that Obama has gone from someone to noone in under a week. Political discourse in the united States remains alive and well...

John McCain: More of the same, please....

John McCain managed to put the US media in a tailspin for the Labour Day weekend holiday by the presentation of his Vice-Presidential nominee, Sarah Palin, Governor of the state of Alaska.

Impressive on many fronts, the presentation of her has undercut what would have been weekend dominance of the media by Senator Obama's Thursday speech at the Democrat National Convention in Denver, Colorado.

Obviously, there is still much to be done - the convention needs to be first rate, however the raw material is in place to pose a 'clear and present danger' to the Democrat hopes of a November election win.

How far ago January seems where the Democrats regarded the outcome of the election as a foregone conclusion.

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Republican, Election 2008, McCain, Sarah Palin

Democrat Convention Day Two: Reciprocity ?

This evening Hilary Clinton gave the key speech at the Democrat convention in Denver. Hilary gave a real tour de force which even the most ardent anti-Democrat would have to concede. She achieved four key issues in her speech;

1. Putting personal support behind Senator Obama.
2. Pitching to women voters.
3. Thanking her supports and sponsors.
4. Reminding Democrats of the Clinton legacy and what they will be missing.

The telling issue was the lack of Barack Obama today. For a candidate able to dial in by satellite to say hello to his family it seemed odd that he would not give a personal tribute to Hilary Clinton. Secondly, the fact that critics are pitching Obama as being an elitist, his lack of appearance is no salve to the criticisms.

Democrat Convention 2008: Day One: The Clinton rift proves telling

This evening's first evening of the Democrat convention saw Tributes to former President Carter and Senator Kennedy acting as a warm-up for Barack Obama's wife Michelle and a brief satellite input from the great man.

It proves telling that Bill Clinton's successful Presidency cannot be leveraged due to the destructive campaign between Hilary and Barack Obama.

The Democrat campaign team require some swift 'adjustments' after Michelle Obama's somewhat wooden performance. Her speech was not quite tailored enough for her and seemed to read like a laundry list of statements aimed at proving how normal they were.

So in summary, on day one the Republicans central theme is that Obama lacks substance and experience for the commander-in-chief role to which the Democrat response has been to wheel out one-term President (though wonderful humanitarian) Jimmy Carter from 3 decades ago.

Not the most auspicious of starts.

Obama's selection of Vice-President a fatal turning point ?

Barack Obama selected Senator Joseph Biden as his Vice-Presidential running mate earlier in the week for the Democrat Party bid for the 2008 White House.

A telling choice in many ways and possibly a turning point for the worse for the campaign. It appears increasingly obvious that the Obama-Clinton ticket would have been highly conflictual in office, but devastating in winning the 2008 election.

Biden, by virtue of having been around for a long time has accumulated political baggage of obvious interest to the Republican rival, John McCain.

It is surprising that the choice was not for a younger governor or senator to reinforce the change message. "politics making for odd bedfellows" is still relevant obviously.

Whither defence ? Conservative Party spending priorities still unclear

The Financial Times newspaper ran two items recently, "Boardrooms keep watch on political risks" and "Companies fear Tory axe on contracts". The thrust of these articles seems to be typical mid-term pieces where the opposition party, gaining confidence, is now seeking tentatively to build a platform of credibility in managing government better than the incumbents.

Whilst the Conservatives plan 'big changes' in procurement, sadly the Party remains silent on its intentions regarding appropriate funding of defence. The reforms of procurement in the 1990s have taken substantial time to become embedded in the civil service system - change of process only serves to a) complicate execution of procurement policies or b) divert attention away from particular decisions.

One of the challenges for the Conservatives is that spending on health and education have been ramped up so dramatically under the current Labour administration that there will be little choice other than to make cuts or else be committed to current plans in the manner of the Blair administration's first years.

For defence, which has certainly delivered on what the public has asked of it, there seems to be elements of an unfolding greek tragedy whereby the more defence achieves, the greater the propensity to ask more and resource less - no matter how it is spun politically.

The Conservative Party has the opportunity to declare clarity of policy on resourcing defence and defer review of military commitments until after an election - enabling the Party to focus on their managerial competence without risking a protracted debate over foreign policy.

Obama breakfast meeting circus show

The Hilton hotel in New York hosted a ticketed breakfast this morning with appearances by Senators Hilary Clinton and likely Presidential nominee Barack Obama.

Arriving in decent time led to insane queues which lasted an hour before finally hitting the security barriers and uniformed secret service. See images.

Approximately 1,100 people attended and were fed a vague breakfast before the core of the show started.

Hilary Clinton provided the warm-up act and demonstrated by force of personality and oratory why she deserved to win the competition for the candidacy. I think she will require a significant role in the new administration though I can see why she will not be selected as Vice-President.

Compared to Hilary, Senator Obama's oratory and style is stilted, full of pauses. However, that said, the crowd lapped it up cheering on Obama's statements about equality for women's salaries, health care etc.

The sad truth is that in many elections, in many countries, promises to make meaningful change tend to be swept away by the difficulties of implementation causing Prime Ministers and many Presidents to favour focusing on international affairs.

I think for Senator Obama the role of Commander-in-Chief will impact dramatically on his agenda for social change, should he be elected.

Learning to drive in the USA: step-by-step

1> Get a learner's permit by completing a 20 question multiple choice test (1 of a,b,c, or d) - focus on drink and drugs.

2> Get a course completion licence - by watching 4 hours of videos on drugs, drink driving and the odd informative film.

3> do lessons (?)

4> take test: turn right, left. stop. left. three-point turn. parallel park. right. left. stop.

Passed.

UK's Strategic Defence Review (SDR) at Nine: Many Happy Returns

July 8th, 2008 represents the ninth anniversary since the publication of the British Government’s Strategic Defence Review (“SDR”). The review was significant as it was both commissioned shortly after the election of “New Labour” led by Prime Minister Tony Blair, and had as its focus the concept of being foreign policy led as opposed to resource led by then Secretary of State for Defence (and later NATO Secretary-General) George Robertson. Completed under the tenure of Robertson’s successor Geoff Hoon, the review was wide-ranging and encompassed the views of a wider audience. The review was well regarded at the time by the armed forces for its throughness, though nine years and several strenuous commitments later, how well have the decisions set in train by the review proved to be ? The need for strategic mobility was far-sighted and addressed at the time by the leasing of four C-17 Galaxy aircraft from Boeing in the United States. Two years later the deal was signed and during the time which has elapsed a further two C-17 aircraft were acquired by the Royal Air Force. The centre piece in terms of procurement requirements from SDR was the decision to focus on expeditionary warfare with two new, large aircraft carriers at the heart of the new capability. Very recently manufacturing contracts were awarded suggesting that this procurement will meet the approximate 15-20 time it takes from concept through to entry into service of defence equipment. In the meantime the major casualty of the past nine years has been the surface fleet of the Royal Navy. During the nine years which have elapsed, whilst in 1998 the plan was to reduce the surface fleet from 35 to 32 surface ships and 22 to 25 minehunters the figures today are 26 surface ships (Type 22, 23 and 42 vessels) and some 16 minehunters. Whilst a construction programme is underway for successor destroyers to replace the ageing Type 42 destroyers, albeit in smaller numbers, no such relief is on the horizon for the backbone of the surface fleet. Moving away from equipment procurement one of the major changes to occur as a result of the SDR was the combination of service logistics through the creation of a tri-service Defence Logistics Organisation. It was felt that the acquisition of equipment needed to be “faster, better, cheaper”. Over the nine years since its creation it sought to rationalise logistics provision and was ultimately combined with the Defence Procurement Agency into a large combine known collectively as Defence Equipment and Support (DE&S). What of “faster, better, cheaper”. The achievement of this goal has arguably been hampered by the failure identified in the 1960s to spend more money in the evaluation and development phases of a project, plus to make those responsible for determining the operational requirement for an equipment be as realistic as possible, to avoid the phenomena known as “gold-plating”. The acquisition of equipment urgently (via the UOR process) has continued to be successful though its lessons are proving highly difficult to apply to procurements which do not have battlefield necessity attached to them. Additionally, Treasury rulings on long term funding of UOR’s make them increasingly problematic. Meanwhile procurement policies focused purely on ‘value-for-money’ have created one of the most open defence commercial environments in the world, offering competitive deals to the Ministry at the increasing expense of the UK defence manufacturing base – something which the subsequent Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS) may, or may not, assist in redressing. Looking at the policy some nine years after its publication it is clear that priorities of government expenditure plus additional commitments have made full implementation of SDR increasingly difficult as attention on processual change will always come second to meeting operational requirements plus lack of funds will prioritise the battlefield over administrative reorganisation and the care and welfare of service personnel and their families. One senior official once suggested that the MoD in effect runs on 120% of the actual funds available thus suggesting that any increase in budget less than 20% will have no material improvement for the defence enterprise. The cuts in numbers of platforms acquired reflects the difficulty of doing more with increasingly less, whilst no effort is made to fundamentally choose which commitments to pursue and which to downplay. It is perhaps somewhat ironic that as government policy has moved increasingly through the 1990s to today focuses on demonstrable results in terms of meeting key performance indicators by government departments relating to their level of success in pitching for additional funding that the obvious outcomes won by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) have actually led to lower levels of funding (when taking defence inflation into account).

US Elections post-primaries: Emergence of the hired guns

Senator Obama today appointed a three person Troika to evaluate Vice-Presidential candidates. An interesting mechanism for justifying the final choice.

It will be interesting to see if this prompts Senator Clinton to forfeit any interest in the VP role.

Technorati Tags:
Election 2008, Democrats, Barack Obama, Hilary Clinton

Election 2008: Game theoretic options favour the Republican nominee

Today is the day of the final primaries. Senator John McCain has sewn up the Republican nomination for sometime and has wasted no time in building a war chest for the autumn.

The Democrats have struggled and appear to be on the cusp of having Senator Obama securing the nomination - unless Hilary Clinton has some skullduggery planned in terms of winning over the Superdelegates with husband Bill.

Whilst Obama is the undoubted winner of the primary process, coming from relative obscurity to international attention, the election is more murky. Vice-Presidential candidates historically are not the ultimate arbiter of victory, but may be more important than at first glance.

Obama is weak in security, McCain in the economy. Sidelining Hilary Clinton enables the Obama camp to avoid the menage-a-trois of Obama, Bill and Hill however risks alienating a swathe of Democrat voters.

Should Hilary overturn Obama's position it will be seen as highly contentious - akin to the Republicans in Florida (which was a while ago).

McCain stands to benefit in both scenarios despite the proximity of George Bush and a completely invisible Dick Cheney. The key question is which VP candidate for McCain neutralises best the advantage of his rivals ?

Mitt Romney has strong business credentials, but is Mormon (maybe good for the Religious right vote), but risky given recent scandals in Texas. Condaleeza Rice was a name thrown around a month or two ago, but has diminished.

So, to summarise;

Obama & X = McCain advantage (upset Hilary voters)

Hilary & X = McCain advantage (upset Obama voters)

Democrat advantage = McCain + ?

contribution to FT article "Al-Yamamah: the case for the defence"

Al-Yamamah: the case for the defence was written by son of former Chief of the Defence Staff (CDS) Jonathan Guthrie concerning investigations into an armaments deal by Britain and Saudi Arabia in the early 1980s for Tornado IDS strike aircraft, spares, training and support.

by Jeffrey Bradford 17 Apr 2008 05:57 PM
Jonathan put his finger on the issue with regard to the Al-Yamamah deal being something which looks less good with the benefit of hindsight.

It seems so long ago that the 1980s were the depth of the cold war in Europe, proxy wars being fought in Africa and the Middle East and Saddam Hussain being our bulwark against radical Islam in Iran.

Defence companies were involved in various deals which as they unwound subsequently have resulted in 'issues' Lockheed of America in the 1970s and Thales of France in South Africa more recently.

In addition Al-Yamamah was a major boost to the British engineering sector and it is questionable whether participation in Eurofighter could have been so robust had Al-Yamamah failed.

The tragedy today is a number of short-sighted decisions being made amongst nervousness regarding international scrutiny of the project - the Defence Export Service Organisation (DESO) has been abolished, Lord Drayson procurement champion has chosen to race automobiles and BAE Chief Executive Mike Turner has curtailed his career leading BAE at a crucial time in its international development.

Something is rotten in the state of Denmark and with hindsight it is not this deal.

The Vice-Presidential nomination game

Sunday morning and the US media in New York deployed multiple pundits to consider the Vice-Presidential candidates who will emerge for the eventual Democrat and Republican candidates for the 2008 Presidential election.

For Republican John McCain the names of Bush Secretary of State, Condoleeza Rice, former soldier and diplomat Colin Powell and others have been bandied about.

For Barack Obama, the interesting idea floated today was that of him selecting a military man, such as Wes Clark as VP to help offset McCain's credentials.

Hilary Clinton faces the dilemma of already having a 'Vice-President' in Bill Clinton, for whom a VP would likely be a nuisance three-some. Obama would be the obvious choice to avoid splitting the party, though the question is, would he want to be seen as kowtowing to the Clinton family, with an eye to his political longevity.

Personally, with an eye to restoring the view of America in the world I think each candidate needs someone capable of carrying domestic interests and helping shield the President from some of the thornier issues he will have to undo.

One thing is certain, Vice-President Cheney changed the nature of the office forever, and I am looking forward to the accounts as to how it came to be.

McCain shows his colours

A small postscript to an important article in last weekends New York Times newspaper concerning John McCain.  Whilst Hilary Clinton has been caught out, talking up her experience under fire, John McCain has remained silent in public concerning his son, who is several months into his tour with the US Marine Corps in Iraq.

I feel that his character coupled with familiarity with the outside world will position him increasingly well with middle America in the forthcoming US Presidential elections.

A respite from politics? The New York international Auto Show

This past week has seen the auto industry invade New York in an attempt to market to the US something other than Presidential Politics.  March is a strange month in the city, neither deep winter nor the promise of Spring, few holidays and much drudgery.

An ideal time to contemplate buying a new car ?

The show itself consists of a huge basement filled with large SUV's, hybrid designs of predominantly American manufacture and upstairs the Japanese offerings, some US cars and the luxury end of the market.  Lambourghini was the only show I noticed to include the willowy blonde and brunette models posing by the supercars and chatting about where to get deals on hair and nail care.  Less glamourous ladies (all ladies note) where charged with giving speeches from aerobics style headsets about the MPG and torque performance of the cars they were baby-sitting. bizarre.

A hall of shopping stalls had some bizarre offerings, lots of dinky cars, but nowhere could I see a stall for Satnav sellers such as TomTom and the dreaded Garmin (used by Avis car rental) which has sent me on many a wild goosechase.

In any event, there were three key takeaways from the experience;

1. New Yorkers seems to favour Japanese cars over their homegrown versions.  At one level I am told the US cars are not as efficient (petrol/gas has tripled in price in the past five years) and "designs have not moved on in Detroit, while American tastes have".  However, go for a drive in neighbouring states and SUV, pick-up trucks have a major role to play.  Drive in an ice storm in Vermont in February and you will appreciate what a couple of tons of Detroit bashed steel can do for your safety.

2. 2008 is not the breakthrough year for the Hybrid engine offerings which cost double in return for a quarter better fuel efficiency.  One example is an SUV which costs $52,000 versus some $25,000 in normal configuration for 20mpg versus 15mpg in the apocryphal "urban setting".

Personally, I think 2008 is the ideal time to buy a US SUV - exchange rates are dire, fuel prices must fall (this is America remember), interest rates are rock bottom and Detroit would be more profitable if it did not allow new cars to roll off the production line...

2008 US Election: Republican best case scenario unfolding

This evening sees Barack Obama win in Mississipi. The primary was seen as an Obama win due to the high Afro-American community in the State. Hilary Clinton meanwhile has done her best to psychologically nutralise in the public's mind the numerical advantage Obama enjoys in terms of delegates secured.

Whilst the nomination will likely be decided by the Super-Delegates at the Democrat convention this summer, her pronouncements on Obama's suitability - or not, to be Hilary's Vice President was a clever tactic at the time. However if voters memories remain good she will be punished.

Meanwhile, Republicans have been handed the best possible case. Democrat candidates are spending very heavily (Obama raised $55 million in February). Given the likely determination of the nomination in the summer, approximately half of Democrat supporters will be disappointed. Additionally the mud-slung by the Democrat candidates is no doubt being carefully analysed by Republican strategists with a view to building a campaign for their candidate who can focus on sharpening his message and holding back resources for the election - to paraphrase Cicero, "the sinews of political electioneering is infinite money".

New York Post annual review of Dictators served with a large measure of Irony

last month the parade magazine supplement carried an annual review of the world's worst dictators, written by David Wallechinsky. This article carried a top 10 of the worst characters and was then supplemented by an additional ten voted in by readers. Several aspects of this article were somewhat bizarre and seemed to betray a lack of appreciation of US foreign policy in favour of a 'noddy-dog' article to be hmmm'd at over the weekend breakfast table.

Firstly, Why would the writer place King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia as high as number four ? Saudi Arabia has for decades been the USA's key country in the region and most moderate, stable regime able to influence broader Arab opinion in the Arab-Israeli dispute. let's not leave aside the oil reserves and weight in organisations such as OPEC. Britain seems to have not forgotten Lord Palermston's dictum that "Britain has no permanent friends, only permanent interests". I am sure that US defense companies will not be carrying a copy of this review when roaming around the Middle East...

Second, Hu Jintao was received by the current President on a state visit 2 years ago. If it is now the case that China is, in the Post's eyes, part of the 'axis of evil' - what recommendations does the article have to pay back the $388 billion of debt the US Government owes ?

Thirdly, President Pervez Musharraf. Including him so high on this list displays real Chutzpah. Not long ago the US described Pakistan as a "key partner in the global coalition against terror," President Bush commended General Musharraf's "courage and vision" in opposing extremism in Pakistan and elsewhere.

On line, Hozni Mubarak of Egypt comes into the top twenty. Another surprise given US reliance on Egypt in recent decades. In January 2008 the New York Times cited the President's praise during his tour of the Middle East saying, “I appreciate very much the long and proud tradition that you’ve had for a vibrant civil society,” said Mr. Bush, who appeared with Mr. Mubarak.

This kind of article, when not thought through only serves to upset people around the globe. Ironically, a recent poll conducted by the Guardian newspaper on November 3rd 2006, “British believe Bush is more dangerous than Kim Jong-il”. In Britain, 69% of those questioned say they believe US policy has made the world less safe since 2001, with only 7% thinking action in Iraq and Afghanistan has increased global security. The finding is mirrored in America's immediate northern and southern neighbours, Canada and Mexico, with 62% of Canadians and 57% of Mexicans saying the world has become more dangerous because of US policy.

The McCain plan for Powell and Schwarznegger ?

Whitehall village ponders the role of two key players on the political scene who have instant name recognition, respect and generally are still in the game.

California governor and former Hollywood star, Arnold Schwarznegger has done an admirable job of running the state since taking office amid electricity cuts galore.  He cannot run there forever, and cannot be President or Vice-President due to being of non-American birth.  Yet he gave a key state's backing to McCain early on.

Governor Schwarznegger for Secretary of Defense or Homeland Security - you heard it here first - he would be good, and the bad guys abroad will remember the Terminator movies...

Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and Secretary of State Colin Powell is more enigmatic.  One of the most impressive individuals I have seen in my own lifetime, he was very vague in his memoirs about his political ambitions, and some would see as being finished after the Iraq intelligence debacle providing a rationale for the invasion in 2003.

When interviewed at the weekend he ranked the candidates (after sustained probing on the issue) as "McCain (R), Obama (D) and Clinton (D)".  Thinking about the arithmetic would Powell be a good foil against Obama ?  Clinton he probably has no love lost with after enduring battles with the Clinton I White House over homosexuality in the military.

For the Obama camp, Powell would be a great asset - uniquely versed in foreign and defense policy, African-American and with global recognition - would he be back at State or Defense under an Obama Presidency ?

I would watch both of these Gentlemen with interest. You heard it here first.

US election 2008: A strategic pause for thought

Today is one of the key dates in the US election, not for it being a particular state primary, but rather for the state of the contest and the key choices which campaign strategists, and the candidates themselves need to address.

Candidate Barack Obama's triple victory last night puts him ahead of rival Hilary Clinton for the first time.  Republican John McCain was meeting in Washington with Republicans to build support for him as the ideal Party candidate.  Critical issues.  This post seeks to identify the key questions for each of the players, not to mention the two parties - Republican and Democrat.

Democrats

For the candidates, the voting system used in the Primaries, that of proportional representation will guarantee a nip-and-tuck race through until the convention - unless one candidate stumbles fundamentally or runs out of campaign finance.

The Clinton camp are trying to dictate the ground on which this stage of the Primaries will be fought - that of televised one-on-one debates, where she comes across well.  The Obama team favour rallies to get their man's personality and message across, as they lack name recognition vis-a-viz their opponent.

Hilary took a loan to finance her campaign in the past week of $5 million and has lost her campaign manager and Deputy.  Obama's team, it feels, have the momentum raising $7 million in the past few days alone.

This all suggests a battle which could end nastily for the Party - any deal done at the Convention would weaken the Party, a prolonged Primary battle will exhaust treasure chests ahead of the real test - the fight against the Republicans.   Will either candidate back down, or accept the Vice President role - right now, no.  I doubt personally that Obama would take Hilary as VP, given that he would get "2 for 1" with former President Bill Clinton.  Hilary would find it challenging to accept Obama - though no candidate has commented on the VP slot as yet.

Republicans

John McCain seems to have a more straight forward run through the Party convention.  Mike Huckabee comes across well on Television, though his religious roots will prevent making significant inroads - CNN forecast recently that if Huckabee won every remaining Primary he would still come short of the McCain vote - and McCain won three more Primaries last night.

The four big issues for the McCain camp are as follows;

1. Rallying the Republican Party to his banner.

2. Becoming more articulate on key election issues beyond national security - health care, economy, immigration etc.

3. Raising funds fast to fight the Democrat money machine.

4. Choosing the right running mate.

No easy answers, however for the moment at least McCain has freedom of thought to work through them.

Republican Romney retires from campaign

Management consultants this morning, and Bain & Company's office in Washington in particular, must be ruing the announcement yesterday lunchtime saw by Mitt Romney of his intention to suspend his effort to be selected as the Republican nominee in the forthcoming 2008 US Presidential election.

Suspension is a technical term, in effect retirement, whereby Romney does not lose the electoral college votes achieved so far should he wish to reenter the campaign.

Pundits suggested reasons for Romney's withdrawal as including - an obsession with PowerPoint slides and data, not wanting to be seen as "beating up the old Guy" (John McCain) who would likely win anyway, and Romney's religion. Aides also dropped the usual rumours about wanting to position himself for the future.

Whitehall Village sees it slightly differently.  McCain has been reliant on splitting the opposition vote between Romney and Huckabee to beat them both and we suspect two issues to underpin Romney's withdrawal;

1. Huckabee won more states on Super Tuesday than Romney anticipated - splitting the religious vote and thereby denying him the chance to be a serious contender for the nomination.

2. The data will have shown a poor Return On Investment (ROI) in terms of expenditure per vote on the campaign (Any "Bainies" on the campaign team will be keeping a low profile I am certain).  See our earlier posting for further details.  The Bain website today leads by informing prospective Clients that Bain enables them to outperform the market by 4 to 1.  Not in political electioneering obviously...

Mike Huckabee's comment immediately after Super Tuesday seems eerily prescient that, "It's now a two man race - and I am one of them".

Cicero: "The sinews of elections... are infinite money"

Apologies to the Roman thinker for misquoting him in the title.  However substituting "war" for "elections" is highly appropriate in terms of thinking about where the lead candidates for the US 2008 election are at financially.  This is shortly after news that Hilary Clinton is adding $5 million of her own money to her campaign and her staff are going without money this month.

The Federal Election Commission records campaign fundraising data, namely amounts raised and spent.  The latest data as at 31 December 2007 is as follows:

Democrats

Hilary Clinton  Raised: $118.3m Spent: $80.3m Retained: $38m

Barack Obama Raised: $103.8m Spent: $85.2m Retained: $18.6m

Comment: Obama, lacking the national name recognition of Clinton early in the campaign has had to invest more to put his name about.

Republicans

John McCain Raised: $42.0m Spent: $39.1m Retained: $2.9m

Mitt Romney Raised: $90.1m Spent: $87.6m Retained: $2.5m

Mike Huckabee Raised: $8.9m Spent: $7.1m Retained: $1.8m

Comment: Romney did an amazing fundraising job in a time when the Republicans are down-at-heel.  However when looking at current standings in terms of electoral votes has achieved a very poor "bang-for-the-buck".

The aftermath of Super Tuesday

I woke up this morning to discover the outcome of one of the key days in the US 2008 election primary season, known as "Super Tuesday" where some 24 states vote for their ideal Democrat or Republican candidate.

Due to nuances of the Party voting systems (Democrats use a form of proportional representation whereas the Republicans use first-past-the-post) a direct comparison of votes and voting trends is inappropriate.

The key outcomes of the evening are that for the Democrats, Hilary Clinton remains ahead but  failed to extend her lead - Barack Obama's campaign on the day resulted in a near-tie in winning electoral college votes.

For the Republicans Huckabee did better than may assumed, Mitt Romney worse and McCain - although the star performer does not yet have the point required to take it easy and start preparing for battle with the "real enemy" - the opposition Party.

Senator McCain's Super Tuesday ?

I started the morning at the Rockerfeller Center in New York to see Senator John McCain's early morning rally to start off his "Super Tuesday" campaign. I may have surprised Channel 4 news anchor Jon Snow by cheerily yelling "Good morning Jon Snow" in a British accent in the middle of NY before 7am.

McCain was joined on the rostrum by former NY mayor and recent competitor for the Republican nomination, Rudy Guliani. Other supporters included Democrat Senator Joe Lieberman (who was Vice President in Al Gore's unsuccessful campaign in 2000) and former Governor Tom Ridge, who was the first head of the Department for Homeland Security (DHS). family were in attendance also namely McCain's wife and sprightly mother. Lastly a cluster of Nixon-offspring were present involved in various ways in the campaign.

The speech was principally about security and Iraq - maybe a necessary play to the voters of New York who endured 9/11. However I could not help feeling that McCain felt happier marching to that drumbeat over the economy and I feel he could struggle as the campaign agenda moves into less familiar waters.

Music included the theme to the "Rocky" movies on McCain's enterance and then on departure the old hit Johnny B. Goode by Chuck Berry "go, Johnny, go go go". Lets hope the nomination translates into a budget for music closer to the key voting demographic...

The ghost at the party - running mates

There has been, perhaps appropriately at this stage, no substantive talk of the issue of Vice-Presidential running mates for the lead candidates in the US election.  Much was made of the Democrat debate where Clinton and Obama were posed the question of working together and their diplomatic dance which ensued.

Yet, with John Edwards departing the race it does raise the question - who would the front runners take as running mates ?  It is curious that Edwards has not declared in favour of Clinton or Obama having departed the race before the key test tomorrow.

California is a key state and Governor Schwartznegger has declared for John McCain - yet as he was not born in the USA cannot run with the Senator.  Perhaps a role as Head of Homeland Security or Secretary of Defense would be appropriate (one can but dream of the ensuing headlines...).

"Super Tuesday" - what's at stake for those unfamiliar with US electoral processes

Tomorrow, twenty-four states go to the polls.  At stake are votes which determine who will be the nominated Democrat and Republican candidate to fight the 2008 election, and hopefully become President early in 2009.

The four main candidates so far have won some points towards the total required to win the nomination.  For the Democrats, 2,025 votes are needed to secure the nomination of which Hilary Clinton has 232 and Obama 158.  For the Republicans, 1,191 votes are required of which John McCain has 97 and Mitt Romney 92.  See below for the votes up for grabs tomorrow and the polls for the lead candidates:

NY Post published polls (Feb 4th, 2008)

State D votes R votes Clinton Obama McCain Romney

Alabama  60 48 +6% -- +23%    --

Alaska 18 29 -- -- --     --

Arkansas 47 34 +40% -- --     --

Arizona 67 53 +2% -- +9%     --

California 441 173 +2% -- +8%     --

Colorado 71 46 -- +2% --    +19%

Conneticut 60 30 -- +4% +19%     --

Delaware 23 18 +2% -- +6%     --

Georgia 103 72 -- +6% +6%     --

Idaho 23 -- -- -- --     --

Illinois 185 70 -- +21% +23%     --

Kansas 41 -- +5% -- --     --

Mass. 121 43 +24% -- --      +23%

Minnesota 88 41 +7% -- +24%     --

Missouri 88 58 +6% -- +14%     --

Montana -- 25 -- -- --     --

New Jersey 127 52 +1% -- +31%     --

New Mexico n/a n/a -- -- --     --

New York 281 101 +16% -- +26%     --

N. Dakota 21 26 -- -- --     --

Oklahoma 47 41 +24% -- +23%     --

Tenn. 85 55 +14% -- +9%     --

Utah 29 36 +24% -- --     --

W. Virginia -- 30 -- -- -- --