US election 2008: A strategic pause for thought

Today is one of the key dates in the US election, not for it being a particular state primary, but rather for the state of the contest and the key choices which campaign strategists, and the candidates themselves need to address.

Candidate Barack Obama's triple victory last night puts him ahead of rival Hilary Clinton for the first time.  Republican John McCain was meeting in Washington with Republicans to build support for him as the ideal Party candidate.  Critical issues.  This post seeks to identify the key questions for each of the players, not to mention the two parties - Republican and Democrat.

Democrats

For the candidates, the voting system used in the Primaries, that of proportional representation will guarantee a nip-and-tuck race through until the convention - unless one candidate stumbles fundamentally or runs out of campaign finance.

The Clinton camp are trying to dictate the ground on which this stage of the Primaries will be fought - that of televised one-on-one debates, where she comes across well.  The Obama team favour rallies to get their man's personality and message across, as they lack name recognition vis-a-viz their opponent.

Hilary took a loan to finance her campaign in the past week of $5 million and has lost her campaign manager and Deputy.  Obama's team, it feels, have the momentum raising $7 million in the past few days alone.

This all suggests a battle which could end nastily for the Party - any deal done at the Convention would weaken the Party, a prolonged Primary battle will exhaust treasure chests ahead of the real test - the fight against the Republicans.   Will either candidate back down, or accept the Vice President role - right now, no.  I doubt personally that Obama would take Hilary as VP, given that he would get "2 for 1" with former President Bill Clinton.  Hilary would find it challenging to accept Obama - though no candidate has commented on the VP slot as yet.

Republicans

John McCain seems to have a more straight forward run through the Party convention.  Mike Huckabee comes across well on Television, though his religious roots will prevent making significant inroads - CNN forecast recently that if Huckabee won every remaining Primary he would still come short of the McCain vote - and McCain won three more Primaries last night.

The four big issues for the McCain camp are as follows;

1. Rallying the Republican Party to his banner.

2. Becoming more articulate on key election issues beyond national security - health care, economy, immigration etc.

3. Raising funds fast to fight the Democrat money machine.

4. Choosing the right running mate.

No easy answers, however for the moment at least McCain has freedom of thought to work through them.