Wednesday 12 March 2008

2008 US Election: Republican best case scenario unfolding


This evening sees Barack Obama win in Mississipi. The primary was seen as an Obama win due to the high Afro-American community in the State. Hilary Clinton meanwhile has done her best to psychologically nutralise in the public's mind the numerical advantage Obama enjoys in terms of delegates secured.

Whilst the nomination will likely be decided by the Super-Delegates at the Democrat convention this summer, her pronouncements on Obama's suitability - or not, to be Hilary's Vice President was a clever tactic at the time. However if voters memories remain good she will be punished.

Meanwhile, Republicans have been handed the best possible case. Democrat candidates are spending very heavily (Obama raised $55 million in February). Given the likely determination of the nomination in the summer, approximately half of Democrat supporters will be disappointed. Additionally the mud-slung by the Democrat candidates is no doubt being carefully analysed by Republican strategists with a view to building a campaign for their candidate who can focus on sharpening his message and holding back resources for the election - to paraphrase Cicero, "the sinews of political electioneering is infinite money".

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