Thursday, 18 September 2008

Labour Party Leadership elections - what ?

In lieu of a conflict abroad to distract a bored populace, a potential change of political leadership can offer a whiff of excitement.

However, the Labour Party are setting themselves up for an autumn PR debacle which might come back to haunt them.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is suffering from the MacMillan dictum of "events, dear boy, events". The economy is 'tanking' people are nervous and so, who would provide better political leadership at all at present ? In any Party ?? Arguably no-one can hold back the tide of economic woe at this point in time.

So, argue the strategists throw up the idea of change in political leadership just before conference season, have everyone rally around the PM and create a temporary feel-good 'blitz' type feeling nationally. Failing that, maybe some economic indicator somewhere will show a positive blip to latch onto...

However, in the longer term (i.e. next 12 months) as election season draws near the Labour Party are offering their opponents ammunition by the bucket-full - the economy is going south and Labour are arguing over the deck chairs kind of messaging. Not good for anyone.

As to the Conservative Party - whilst they have made gains people are going to be sufficiently afraid that the next election in 2009/10 will be a '1992 moment' for Labour. They will be reelected, but with a slim majority.

The only chance of a Conservative win is in making inroads into Liberal Democrat seats, and I am certain they will not be accommodating, having a longer track record at managing local councils.


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