Thursday 30 October 2008

US Election 2008: Key elements of the strategic battlefield

There are three issues in thinking through the strategies being employed by Democrat and Republican Presidential candidates John McCain (R) and Barack Obama (D); State electoral college votes, demographics, and ethnicity.

A: Electoral College votes (Top 10 out of 538 total votes with 270 as the target for election victory represent nearly half (47%) or 256 votes).

1. California - 55
2. Texas - 34
3. New York - 31
4. Florida - 27
5. Illinois - 21
6. Pennsylvania - 21
7. Ohio - 20
8. Michigan - 17
9. Georgia - 15
10. North Carolina - 15

B: Voter Demographics (using US Government census report concerning the November 2004 Presidential election).

Age group numbers % voted % registered
18-24 47 58
55+ 72 79

74 percent of women and 71 percent of men entitled to vote were registered at the time of the 2004 election. In addition, of the 215 million registered voters some 24 million are veterans of the armed services.


C: Ethnicity (again, data derived from US Census of Nov 2004 election)
Ethic Group registered % Voted % number voters
White 73.6 65.4 162.9m
Black 68.7 60.0 23.3m
Asian 51.8 44.1 6.2m
Hispanic 57.9 47.2 16.0m

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