UK Election: Latest polls before the real poll

Courtesy of ParliamentWatch blog
May 5, 2010

There's been a glut of opinion polls tonight, as everyone attempts to have the last word. All the eight organisations who have been regularly polling have the Conservatives in the lead - but no-one is forecasting an overall majority. The Liberal Democrats and Labour could be neck and neck in the popular vote, but as we have previously reported, the Liberal Democrat seat count will be lagging well behind.

The averages of the 8 polls are : Conservative 35.5%; Liberal Democrats 27.5%; Labour 27.4%. Using our previous model, this would translate into Conservatives 287 (39 short of that elusive overall majority); Labour 243 and Liberal Democrats 88.

There are some big BUTS however. No-one is assessing turnout, and therefore the propensity of those sampled actually to put their crosses on ballot papers. Secondly, there is no information about the postal vote. Many of the ballot papers appeared in letter boxes when the Liberal Democrat tidal wave was at its greatest. Most of those papers are already sitting in town halls waiting to be counted.

And there may well be regional variations. One poll in the north east puts Liberal Democrats ahead of the overall trend. The latest poll in Scotland shows little change except an increase in Conservative support, but this would only result in two seats changing hands. The extra Liberal Democrat support may therefore be concentrated in England. Some seats are vulnerable to very small swings at this general level of support, so local campaigning and a tactical squeeze (including the last minute Labour plea for tactical voting) might have a greater impact on a handful of seats. There's little information about UKIP tactical voting, if any.

One interesting aside was in an ITV poll that said that 81% of people supported the proposition that the party getting the most votes (as
distinct from seats) should lead the new Government. Which means there may be an undercurrent of support for fairness (proportional representation) in the allocation of seats, an issue which will simmer through and beyond the savage economic measures that whoever wins is likely to introduce.

Like the Terminator, we will return with further comment when real results replace speculation.