Conservative quandry 2010

David Cameron must have a headache today.

Over the weekend it became public news that the Liberal Democrats have been holding parallel discussions with the Labour Party following the indecisive outcome of the UK's 2010 General Election.

Strategy A: In David's mind must be to stand back from forming a coalition and alienating a section of his own Party (former leaders like Iain Duncan Smith who are bitterly opposed to Liberal Democrat support for the Euro). With the largest number of seats in the House of Commons the Conservatives could block any policy created by the coalition, ensuring a repeat of the early 1970s which translated into a near two decade run for the Conservatives.

However, if you pursue strategy A what chances are there of surviving as leader for upto 5 more years ? There must be a real temptation for someone to challenge him having done the ground work to become the next Tory Prime Minister.

Strategy B: Do a deal with the Liberal Democrats. Somewhat fraught, despite the record of cooperation at local council level given Lib Dem enthusiasm for Europe, the Euro and a referendum on the voting system. Lib Dems must be ultimately suspicious of Conservative support for electoral reform.

Strategy C: The high-risk one of declaring the Lib Dems and Labour as having no mandate to govern let them fail to agree and forcing a second election. Labour coffers are likely empty at this point to rally for a second round of campaigning and despite a number of new MPs not wanting to re-run for office this could deliver the outright majority and avoid a lot of poltical heartache downstream.

Given Mervyn Kings comment that the victor of this election will likely be out for a generation this does not seem to be the prize to win (unless you can feel the heat of the pack of prospective Conservative Leaders breathing down your neck).