Wednesday 5 May 2010

UK Election 2010 Forecast: 654 Politicians will likely decide who forms the next Government of the United Kingdom

The BBC website has made available a visual means of viewing how the various opinion polls will translate into seats in parliament and therefore the likely winners in tomorrows election.

The Three polls included are all from today -
Labour Conservative (Tory) Liberal Democrat
Poll of Polls: 272 270 79

ComRes: 258 289 75

YouGov: 288 261 72

The outcomes therefore would be a hung parliament in all three scenarios. The question becomes who will yield the most to the Liberal Democrats in terms of ministerial positions to form the next (coalition) government.

My own money is on the incumbent being most desperate to hold to power ie. Labour-Lib Dem (which does have a preceedent in the early 1970s). I suspect also the price of this coalition will be a Labour party leadership election within 12 months to end Gordon Browns Premiership.

Whilst obviously dissapointing for the Conservatives I think the election will, as Mervyn King as suggested be a poison chalice for the victors - the last coalition Lab-Lib pact led to near 20 years of Conservative rule under Margaret Thatcher then John Major. Perhaps this is the best outcome for the UK.

Possibly a style-over-substance issue however David Cameron and his Notting Hill public school set do not seem to have broken down the barriers to making the UK people feel entirely comfortable with them.

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