Thursday, 31 January 2008

US election: Gunfight ahead of Super Tuesday Corral

In the past 24 hours both Rudy Gulliani, former Mayor of New York and Senator John Edwards have pulled out of the 2008 race for the White House.  It is somewhat surprising given the imminent 5th February vote by 21 states simultaneously, though likely waiting would have not changed the outcome and would have harmed subsequent manoeuvering for position with the successful candidate downstream.

The question this morning is, "where will the Edwards vote go ?" Both the Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton camps are laying claim verbally to Edward's supporters, though I suspect after defending Obama in the New Hampshire Primary debate that he will come out in support of Edwards.

A further move in recent days has been the Democrat aristocracy (The Kennedy's) backing Obama.  This move is a real snub for the Clinton's ahead of the 5th February which may reflect the fact that the Clinton's know where the skeleton's are - versus Obama with whom new deals for interest groups can be cut.  Bottom line is that there is trouble ahead.

Looking forward I think it is fair to say that once Huckabee withdraws it will be a straight fight for the Party nominations - McCain versus Romney, Clinton versus Obama.

Given the ominous silence of the Republican attack machine I suspect that the Democrat winner will climb out of his trench only to be bayoneted by the Republicans.  Stand by for four more years of Republican rule, America.

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