The Michigan Primary and lessons for the next British election thus far...

The Michigan primary last night was won by Mitt Romney (Republican) by a comfortable margin over his nearest rival, Senator John McCain who won in New Hampshire. The primary system this election, with 21 states voting on February 5th makes strategy quite fascinating. Given the scale of the country it is impossible to be everywhere, so candidates have to focus their efforts (and rely on TV ads to make up the rest - leading to a hideously expensive, largely remote campaign bubble the candidates have to operate in).

Rudy Gulliani (R) for example has focused on Miami, Clinton (D) and Obama (D) on New York and its surround versus the Afro-American and youth votes. Also there are a number of party officials who would be important in the event of a dead heat between candidates going into the Party conferences in the summer where the candidate would be selected. Interesting dynamics.

For the next British election, I have several lessons, themes and predictions gleaned thus far from the US process;

1. Economy, health care reform and immigration far outweigh security as dominant campaign themes. Closure of the Midlands car plant for rover has echoes in the Michigan campaign of the past week for example. Whilst the US debate is more on payment, the UK will likely focus on performance versus taxes (a word which only Gulliani is pushing at present in the US).

2. The Democrat use of the word 'change' needs to combine with a classic political campaign to unseat Labour. The amount of time in office will begin to weigh against Labour, helped only by the jettisoning of Tony Blair - Labour will seek to remind the electorate he is gone, the opposition will seek to keep his name alive (and thus Iraq etc.). George W Bush is in the intriguing position of being completely unwanted by Republican candidates, plus Dick Cheney, the Vice President has literally disappeared prompting the Washington Post to run a column entitled "where's the Veep ?" consolidating sightings of him.

3. Iraq is nowhere to be found in this election - New Hampshire saw the bulk of candidates commit to getting out, and then that was it. Dealt with in the initial rounds.