Well, Senators Clinton and McCain beat Obama and Romney last night in an exciting vote for the Democrat and Republican parties respectively. The votes on the Democrat side were close until around 1030pm EST when Associated Press called New Hampshire (NH) as a Clinton win. CNN prevaricated, due to returns not being filed by a number of college towns (seen as Pro-Obama territory) until around 1115. Shortly after this Obama made a televised address conceding the state.
The US media were caught out, seeing NH as providing further pain for Hilary Clinton and predicting a double digit lead for Obama. Several factors may well have mitigated this error. Firstly, the weather was exceptionally mild (mid 60's F) boosting participation at the polls. Second, the Obama campaign has captured the imaginations of many of those polled, but not translated into actual votes in the polling booths.
Analysing the candidates themselves, The Clintons ran a traditional campaign, using the Unions, elderly votes etc. whereas Obama continued a higher risk strategy of appealing to floating voters and the young - which helped tremendously in Ohio, but not here. For the Republicans, McCain won NH previously and obviously had the right approach. Former New York mayor, Rudi Gulliani came in fourth with 9% of the vote and whilst some pundits regard him as having a strong chance later in the campaign, right now he seems an exceptionally problematic candidate - with numerous worries about family and business connections.
Looking forward, next week sees the Michigan primary (Republican stomping ground), South Carolina (50% of voters are of African-American origin posing a big test for Clinton and Obama though Edwards has won here before - big risk of the anti-Clinton vote being fractured to her benefit), then super Tuesday, February 5th, where 21 states vote - one for your diaries.
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