Friday 1 February 2008

LA Democrat debate: experience is a two-edged sword...


Last night saw the last Democrat public debate between Senators Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama, competing for the Party nomination in the 2008 US election

It was a more civilised affair than pundits had imagined, after a fortnight of sniping between Hilary, Barack and Hilary's husband, former President Bill Clinton.  Little surprise really, as the audience for this debate was less the general public, and more the Party grandees who will be key in supporting the candidates with votes, prestige and money - lots of money in the coming months.

My key observations from the debate are as follows;

1. Hilary gave a very good opening speech - though it was clear she spent an immense amount of time memorising it.

2. Obama seemed a little daunted in the early stages of the debate - the dynamic was very different from the early "beauty parades" with several participants.  He bounced back as the debate proceeded and made a number of quick comments and made the audience laugh.

3. The candidates see Iraq as an issue between them, with Obama coming off better as having been against the 2003 conflict, officially, since Day 1 a'la McCain.

4. It is Clear that Hilary is positioning herself as the most experienced candidate "ready on Day one" (though no direct mention of Bill), versus Obama "looking forward, not past", "change", "yes we can" etc.

5. Health care is a major issue - and the differences are largely technical and though important - I suspect the electorate will not have the patience to understand. Obama's idea to televise all negotiations on C-Span is noble, though unlikely to succeed in a nation with hundreds of TV channels and a 30 second attention span.

6. Immigration will be an important issue, as inevitably when economic times are perceived to be difficult people start looking for scapegoats.  The campaign is about the thorny issue of how corporate America turns a blind eye to "illegals" to deliver ever cheaper goods and services, whilst not being 'invaded' - a problem not uncommon in other countries.

One thing about the obvious experience former First Lady and Senator Clinton is that it is hard learnt, and like a child - you have to have the opportunity to make mistakes to be able to learn, adapt and succeed.  I suspect, should she succeed in winning the nomination, that the Republicans will remind the American voting public of Somalia, Hilary's lead on health care reform, the failed attacks on al-Quaeda, failure to intervene Bosnia and Rwanda, and of course the WhiteWater scandal.

On a final note, the bulk of the audience at the Kodak theatre (location of the Oscar awards ceremony) were from the Hollywood media set - is it withdrawal symptoms from the cancellation of this year's Golden Globes - or like the Germans with their beach towels - bagging a seat early ?

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