No limit [$700 bn] stakes poker - Washington style

Global stockmarkets are about to spend a couple of days feeding off one another in an ever descending cycle of economic violence - 21st Century style.

The failure of the US political system to reach agreement today led immediately to a sell-off in US markets. The failure itself, whilst a leadership blunder tarnishing the reputations of all political parties represented distinct philosophical differences.

Democrats favour a maximalist approach to protecting savings of individual people and capping executive pay, whilst Republicans see minimal government involvement in markets as being crucial to American prosperity.

It is a difficult square to circle, not helped by the Presidential elections - a number of politicians are up for re-election and therefore focused on their own futures. Congress will reconvene on Thursday, and whilst a new plan could be brokered in the next 48 hours it cannot be brought into force until then.

The consequence is two days of economic turmoil with no political solution in sight. Time to raise, hold or call ?

Technorati Tags:
Election 2008, US Election 2008, US economy, World economy

A week is a long time in Presidential politics...

A week of immense economic upheaval in the United States driven by a financial crisis has proved illuminating in terms of analysing political campaign strategy.

Taking a leaf from military strategy John McCain has kept Senator Barack Obama off-balance, guessing whether or not he would participate in the first of four televised political debates this evening. Further McCain beat Obama to the punch in terms of 'suspending' his political campaign and travelling to Washington to play his part in trying to resolve the Congressional deadlock.

Travelling to 'save' Washington appears to be a theme - attending the 2008 Clinton Global Initiative meeting in New York, the closing plenary session had former President Bill Clinton introducing Prime Minister Gordon Brown en rout to save Washington - and his own reputation in the UK. That said, if the Bretton Woods regime is about to be re-assessed it is better that Britain is there than not.

Turning to the first Presidential debate, in the aftermath the media, who are far from the partisan people we know abroad via Robert redford in "All the President's men" have leant towards a 'draw' or a win for Obama.

I personally see the outcome differently. Although the subject for the debate was foreign affairs - a strong suit for John McCain - and Obama acquitted himself well, I think the Democrat candidate failed to read enough military strategy. Obama's team failed to take the initiative or rather allowed the enemy (John McCain) to dictate the terms of the debate.

I am personally very surprised that Obama did not slant his answers towards the number one issue of concern, the economy. Instead he agreed frequently with John McCain (expect to see some web advert imminently) and appeared the junior, whilst JOhn McCain planted a succession of punches on him repeatedly "he does not understand..."

Senator Obama should, in my own opinion, have been more aggressive in turning answers back to the US economy - which people are really worried about right now.

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Democrats, Election 2008, McCain, Republican, Obama

Labour Party Leadership elections - what ?

In lieu of a conflict abroad to distract a bored populace, a potential change of political leadership can offer a whiff of excitement.

However, the Labour Party are setting themselves up for an autumn PR debacle which might come back to haunt them.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown is suffering from the MacMillan dictum of "events, dear boy, events". The economy is 'tanking' people are nervous and so, who would provide better political leadership at all at present ? In any Party ?? Arguably no-one can hold back the tide of economic woe at this point in time.

So, argue the strategists throw up the idea of change in political leadership just before conference season, have everyone rally around the PM and create a temporary feel-good 'blitz' type feeling nationally. Failing that, maybe some economic indicator somewhere will show a positive blip to latch onto...

However, in the longer term (i.e. next 12 months) as election season draws near the Labour Party are offering their opponents ammunition by the bucket-full - the economy is going south and Labour are arguing over the deck chairs kind of messaging. Not good for anyone.

As to the Conservative Party - whilst they have made gains people are going to be sufficiently afraid that the next election in 2009/10 will be a '1992 moment' for Labour. They will be reelected, but with a slim majority.

The only chance of a Conservative win is in making inroads into Liberal Democrat seats, and I am certain they will not be accommodating, having a longer track record at managing local councils.

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UK Politics, Gordon Brown, Labour Party

The [electoral] road gets increasingly tougher for the Democrat Party...

Democrat Party members must be wishing they could turn the clock back to the timeframe prior to the Convention season. Democrat Senator Barack Obama enjoyed a substantial lead over Republican John McCain. The media were squarely behind the Democrat effort and opinion polls showed a satisfying lead.

The decision of the Democrat party to forego public contributions to their campaign - because they believed that grass roots contributions would far outstrip the potential under a capped system - could have been a mirage. The McCain took public funding and have enjoyed additional funding courtesy of a more engaged Party. The cash burn by the Obama campaign needs getting under control - fast.

Three weeks on and Barack Obama is being reported as making gaffs regarding Christianity and Islam, attacking the popular Republican VP pick, Sarah Palin mixing up his pit-bulls and pigs.

The perceived poor treatment of former President Bill and Senator Hilary Clinton by the Democrat Party has done little to aid them. One can imagine Hilary doing the bare minimum to blunt the "Palin offensive" by the McCain in order to put the Democrat Party in its place post election with a "I told you so" and position herself as the heir for the 2012 Presidential election. This thought seems to be borne out by her press conference in Florida at the behest of Obama where she refused to attack Sarah Palin.

Obama, meanwhile is due to meet with President Clinton at the Clinton campaign headquarters in New York to seek advice on the election - does that not seem a little late in the day ?

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Democrats, Republican, US Election 2008

If only it was about Character...

John McCain ended the Republican convention this evening having accepted his party's nomination to be the Presidential campaign candidate for the forthcoming November elections.

No doubt his speech will be compared with Democrat Senator Barack Obama - not as flashy, longer, indoors not outdoors etc. etc.

What his speech did do was set out a platform to target small town American voters in middle America and the West. His Vice-President Sarah Palin will only add to the Senators appeal and appears to be a dangerous opponent should the Democrats lower their guard and possessing several layers of defence against any charges her enemies should employ.

The speech also was successful in laying out a number of hooks to trap policy makers on the Democrat side. In addition it enabled the candidate to layout his stall as a family man, away from the way he is normally viewed.

The only down sides were two protestors seeking to disrupt his speech and for some Republicans the lack of reference to George Bush - McCain has leap frogged them to compare himself with Ronald Reagan's viewpoint, a shrewd move.

McCain's gamble, if successful will be to paint the election as being driven by character. If this becomes the case he will win hands-down and cause one of the largest electoral upsets. Hilary Clinton will also be gnashing her teeth that he has to refer to another woman as "Mrs. Vice-President"

Technorati Tags:
Election 2008, McCain, Republican

What of the current President's legacy ?

Whilst watching President George Bush's address to the Republican National Conference via satellite link, I wondered as to what in his own mind's eye would be the ultimate impression he would like to leave in the minds of the American public.

I then thought back to the reports circulating that the location of the leader of the Al-Quaeda terrorist network, Osama Bin Laden was within a relatively small area in Pakistan near the Afghan border.

Next I see the first cross-border raid by US forces without Pakistani approval was reported today.  Is the President planning chlandestine activity with the aim of capturing Bin Laden before the clock runs out on his Presidency.

What a gift that would be to the American Public, his Presidential legacy and, not unimportantly, the odds for his successor Senator John McCain.

Sarah Palin hits a home run for the McCain team

Last night in St. Paul, Minneapolis at the 2008 Republican National Convention, Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin emerged onto the National stage and made an excellent speech.  The presentation was flawless, the speech crafted beautifully and rehearsed thoroughly to present Sarah Palin in the best light and create maximum appeal.

I am also sure from her body language that she is a formidable politician, more than capable of damning her opposition with faint praise as they say in Britain.  She rebuked the media attention on her family, introducing them in a brady-bunch, family next door kind of way - she took the fight to Democrats Obama and Biden, head on flagging their lack of experience in running an organisation - and made great capital by turning Obama's experience as a "community organiser" into a pejorative, echoing the pummeling given in the warm-up speech from former New York mayor, Rudi Gulliani.

At the level fo grand [political] strategy Sarah Palin has, in addition, served the military requirements of McCain's campaign to provide a diversion for the enemy - attracting both the fire and spotlight while McCain forges on - somewhat like the tortoise against the Obama Hare.  Of course we all know what ultimately transpires in that marathon tale...

In addition for the Republican Party, they risk being out-spent by the Democrats in their record-making election fundraising efforts.  Having the former CEO of eBay for advice on how to leverage the internet must be a plus, as having Sarah Palin's freshness attract media attention - at no financial cost to the campaign coffers.

A week[end] is a long time in politics...

Labor Day weekend holiday, USA, 2008.   In the Hamptons the summer sun and blue skies shine whilst visitors fire up their barbeques for the final time or else get early onto the I495 highway to head home.

Less than a week ago, Barack Obama had the country talking about his acceptance speech of the Democrat nomination in Denver, Colorado.


After a weekend where Republican Senator John McCain announced a female Vice-Presidential pick, Sarah Palin of Alaska - she and a Hurricane heading for New Orleans have dominated the news.

From the first comments regarding who she is through to concerns about her unmarried pregnant daughter Palin has taken eyes off the no-show by President Bush and Vice-Preident Cheney at the convention (accident or deisgn for McCain - deliberate snub by Bush ?)

The net outcome is that Obama has gone from someone to noone in under a week. Political discourse in the united States remains alive and well...