US election: Gunfight ahead of Super Tuesday Corral

In the past 24 hours both Rudy Gulliani, former Mayor of New York and Senator John Edwards have pulled out of the 2008 race for the White House.  It is somewhat surprising given the imminent 5th February vote by 21 states simultaneously, though likely waiting would have not changed the outcome and would have harmed subsequent manoeuvering for position with the successful candidate downstream.

The question this morning is, "where will the Edwards vote go ?" Both the Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton camps are laying claim verbally to Edward's supporters, though I suspect after defending Obama in the New Hampshire Primary debate that he will come out in support of Edwards.

A further move in recent days has been the Democrat aristocracy (The Kennedy's) backing Obama.  This move is a real snub for the Clinton's ahead of the 5th February which may reflect the fact that the Clinton's know where the skeleton's are - versus Obama with whom new deals for interest groups can be cut.  Bottom line is that there is trouble ahead.

Looking forward I think it is fair to say that once Huckabee withdraws it will be a straight fight for the Party nominations - McCain versus Romney, Clinton versus Obama.

Given the ominous silence of the Republican attack machine I suspect that the Democrat winner will climb out of his trench only to be bayoneted by the Republicans.  Stand by for four more years of Republican rule, America.

US election 2008: "people get the Government they deserve ?"

The impending US election sees the potential for a second Clinton Presidency, bringing a former President back to the White House in the role of First Man / Mate / Partner / whatever.

Looking back at recent Presidencies, the United States has, in effect, been ruled by two families since 1988, or even earlier if George Bush's time as Vice President to Ronald Reagan is counted. The Bush and Clinton families have held sway since a time when the film Rain man starring Dustin Hoffman and Tom Cruise won awards and Clint Eastwood released his fourth and final Dirty Harry movie, the eight year Iraq-Iran war ended, the USS Carl Vincennes shot down an Iranian passenger aircraft and the Olympics was held in Seoul, South Korea.

This all seems a long-time ago, pre-internet that two families have held sway running the most powerful, by many metrics, nation on the planet.  The US probably deserves a fundamental change and maybe more of the same is not the way to go.  However, as one wag put it, "Democracy is the political system by which the people get the Government they deserve" - rather than need.

Gordon Brown in India: Palmerston would have approved

Gordon Brown's visit to india is, regardless of Party affiliation, a good piece of classic British foreign policy - if only these glimpses of far-sightedness were more regular from the New Labour administration.

British calls for Indian representation as a permanent member of the UN Security Council is no bad thing. firstly, China is the only Asian regional power currently represented (and Sino-British relations are filled with less happier events such as the Hong Kong lease and the Opium Wars of the mid-nineteenth century). Second, it is politically a single-party state.

India offers Britain the chance to develop a more relevant "special relationship" for the 21st century - even if the 21st is not the "Asian century" beloved of pundits, it will be important to be present and have a few favours banked - Why not do so with the largest, English speaking democracy in the World which also has a beuraucracy based on the British civil service - Sir Humphrey, Clive of India and Palmerston will no doubt be smiling today - "well done, Prime Minister"

As a lover of Indian versus Chinese cuisine I see this as a doubly astute move.

The 'R' word

There is an old, oft quotes phrase in economic circles, 'when America sneezes the world catches a cold'. This author having woken up with a poor head as a result of a cold and flu bug making the rounds found this particularly relevant when perusing the financial pages.

Like national security, aside from tangible indicators such as soldiers, ships and aircraft much of whether a nation feels secure or not is down to state of mind. The Swiss worry little, Americans rather more - despite the disparity in spending and scale of military effort. The economy is likewise afflicted, and reading the financial press the R word - recession is, at a cursory glance, occupying about one article in two.

Three articles which particularly drew my attention in the US edition of the Financial Times were that California and Florida are in recession as a result of the sub-prime mortgage credit debacle, Airbus forecasts a 50% drop in sales (less travel for business and tourism) and an analysis of which stock exchanges are formally in a bear market phase, and which are teetering near the edge.

All in all, unpleasant reading - though unexpected when put in the context of a bull run from the early 1990s with only a blip related to the 9/11 tragedy in New York and dot.com bubble bursting. As friends say, in a Presidential election year the US economy goes onto hold.

I feel that this coupled with credit woes suggest a recession running into Q1/2 2009. Hardly the most encouraging economist forecast to start the year with. That said on hedge fund made billions of dollars during the sub-prime crisis, so where there is chaos, there is profit...

The Michigan Primary and lessons for the next British election thus far...

The Michigan primary last night was won by Mitt Romney (Republican) by a comfortable margin over his nearest rival, Senator John McCain who won in New Hampshire. The primary system this election, with 21 states voting on February 5th makes strategy quite fascinating. Given the scale of the country it is impossible to be everywhere, so candidates have to focus their efforts (and rely on TV ads to make up the rest - leading to a hideously expensive, largely remote campaign bubble the candidates have to operate in).

Rudy Gulliani (R) for example has focused on Miami, Clinton (D) and Obama (D) on New York and its surround versus the Afro-American and youth votes. Also there are a number of party officials who would be important in the event of a dead heat between candidates going into the Party conferences in the summer where the candidate would be selected. Interesting dynamics.

For the next British election, I have several lessons, themes and predictions gleaned thus far from the US process;

1. Economy, health care reform and immigration far outweigh security as dominant campaign themes. Closure of the Midlands car plant for rover has echoes in the Michigan campaign of the past week for example. Whilst the US debate is more on payment, the UK will likely focus on performance versus taxes (a word which only Gulliani is pushing at present in the US).

2. The Democrat use of the word 'change' needs to combine with a classic political campaign to unseat Labour. The amount of time in office will begin to weigh against Labour, helped only by the jettisoning of Tony Blair - Labour will seek to remind the electorate he is gone, the opposition will seek to keep his name alive (and thus Iraq etc.). George W Bush is in the intriguing position of being completely unwanted by Republican candidates, plus Dick Cheney, the Vice President has literally disappeared prompting the Washington Post to run a column entitled "where's the Veep ?" consolidating sightings of him.

3. Iraq is nowhere to be found in this election - New Hampshire saw the bulk of candidates commit to getting out, and then that was it. Dealt with in the initial rounds.

Tale of two cities: Richardson & Gulliani

US news coverage yesterday was concerned with the retirement of Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico from the race for the Democrat nomination for the 2008 election. Richardson came fourth amongst Democrat contenders in both Ohio and New Hampshire prompting his resignation.

Watching Richardson in the final televised New Hampshire (NH) debates yielded some clues as to whether or not his mind was already made up as to his intentions should he fail. It was noticeable that he kept swaying from side to side in his chair, his answers demonstrated his frustration as he tried to move the question away from a glib answer about the need for change to the complex issues underpinning the question posed to him. Lastly, you could hear a tap, tap, tap noise when he was addressing the interviewer which must have been his hand tapping on the table to make his point - a clear sign of frustration. One answer saw Richardson talking about his experience, both in the Clinton Cabinet and negotiating with north Korea. frustration that the electorate at this stage are concerned more with style than substance.

Meanwhile, fourth of six for the Republicans was former New York mayor, Rudy Gulliani who was famous for his response to the challenge of the 9/11 attacks and destruction of the World Trade Center. A Brit I was talking to the other night who was visiting New York expressed surprise at Gulliani's poor showing. Akin to American surprise at British attitudes towards Tony Blair, Gulliani has suffered the drip, drip, drip of family and marital strife, questions about the activities of his consulting operation and associates and most importantly the perceived lack of response to the New Orleans disaster in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

The 2008 US election process continues to provide interest.

US Election 2008: Smelling the coffee the morning after the New Hampshire primary debates

Well, Senators Clinton and McCain beat Obama and Romney last night in an exciting vote for the Democrat and Republican parties respectively. The votes on the Democrat side were close until around 1030pm EST when Associated Press called New Hampshire (NH) as a Clinton win. CNN prevaricated, due to returns not being filed by a number of college towns (seen as Pro-Obama territory) until around 1115. Shortly after this Obama made a televised address conceding the state.

The US media were caught out, seeing NH as providing further pain for Hilary Clinton and predicting a double digit lead for Obama. Several factors may well have mitigated this error. Firstly, the weather was exceptionally mild (mid 60's F) boosting participation at the polls. Second, the Obama campaign has captured the imaginations of many of those polled, but not translated into actual votes in the polling booths.

Analysing the candidates themselves, The Clintons ran a traditional campaign, using the Unions, elderly votes etc. whereas Obama continued a higher risk strategy of appealing to floating voters and the young - which helped tremendously in Ohio, but not here. For the Republicans, McCain won NH previously and obviously had the right approach. Former New York mayor, Rudi Gulliani came in fourth with 9% of the vote and whilst some pundits regard him as having a strong chance later in the campaign, right now he seems an exceptionally problematic candidate - with numerous worries about family and business connections.

Looking forward, next week sees the Michigan primary (Republican stomping ground), South Carolina (50% of voters are of African-American origin posing a big test for Clinton and Obama though Edwards has won here before - big risk of the anti-Clinton vote being fractured to her benefit), then super Tuesday, February 5th, where 21 states vote - one for your diaries.

You Dirty Rat ! Observations in New York

Whilst walking the streets of New York I have noticed regularly a 30 foot high inflatable rat outside the odd building or hotel. On closer examination it becomes apparent that there are a group of union members engaged in protest regarding an employer or contractor who has broken the rules, aided by a 30 foot inflatable rat.

Sightings of the rat pose the question for me as to whether each Union has its own rat ? or is the rat on loan from someone who has warehouse filled with them. Given it is the only one I have seen anywhere on my travels this could be exceptionally valuable. Of course, the pivotal question is does the rat help the Union achieved their desired settlement or is it just a lot of compressed air ?

US Election 2008: Observations of the New Hampshire primary debates

Last night saw the last broadcast of Republican and Democrat debates prior to the New Hampshire primary tomorrow. Democrat candidates were put on the spot with regard to US prepardness for attack by terrorists without involving or informing the state in which they were operating. The candidates responses were across the board in favour of unilateral action leading to the commentator jibing that they were clearly in favour of the "Bush Doctrine".



In terms of political manoeuvring by the four Democrat candidates, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is clearly in last place, struggling to cover the range of issues with confidence. Obama and Edwards are tacitly supportive of one another - painting Hilary Clinton as representing the "status quo". A short spat between Clinton and Obama, regarding Obama's changing opinions, saw Hilary come off worse. I suspect that Hilary needs to tone down the testosterone and drop insider language which the bulk of the electorate do not understand (such as using the term 'Predator RPV's' in a discussion of how to handle Afghanistan).



The Republican debate was more wide open with six candidates vying for the attention of the New Hampshire constituency. Of the six the two most cogent were arguably Senator McCain and Mitt Romney. However, McCain's focus on National Security feels at the intuitive level as being out of touch with voter concerns - health care, economy and immigration being at the top of the list. Whilst former New York Mayor Gulliani had moments of inspration, overall he seemed somewhat lackluster.



Whilst it is a long road to the final nominations this author suspects, based on current data, the 'big 4' vying for Republican and Democrat nominations will be McCain versus Romney for the Republicans and Obama versus Edwards for the Democrats. Sticking my neck out further, based on what I have observed so far, a Romney versus Edwards election with Romney prevailing is not the popular view in the big cities, but could play well at the grass-roots bulk of American voters.