UK Election Polls 20 April, 2010

UK Election Polls 20 April, 2010
April 20, 2010

Just as the Icelandic volcano unexpectedly changed the landscape of European travel, so the first ever debate on TV between the leaders of Britain’s main political parties had a game changing impact on the prospects for the General Election now under way.

Up to that fateful 90 minutes podium to podium confrontation last week, the story of British politics had been: The people don’t want Labour and Gordon Brown again, but David Cameron’s Conservatives haven’t sealed the deal. Then Nick Clegg for the Liberal Democrats hit the screen for the first time as an equal – and the future was different.

Over the last six months, Cameron’s Conservatives had been flat lining under the 40% they need under the UK’s warped political system to make the breakthrough into an overall majority.

As the campaign started, the first 12 polls of April showed the Conservatives on 39% +/- 2%; Labour 30%+/- 2%; Liberal Democrats 19%+/- 2%, with 95% confidence. That would mean the Conservatives the biggest Party, about 10 seats short of a majority, but with everything to play for.

Then came the debate. Clegg was a palpable hit. He came over as the new man, the nice man, with policies people liked. He won the debate in a canter. His personal approval levels have soared to a net positive over negative of 78% - something not seen since Winston Churchill led the nation to victory in the Second World War.

His Party ratings have followed suit. In ten polls conducted since then, the averages have changed to Conservative 32% (down 7%); Labour 27% (down 3%) and Liberal Democrats 30% (up 11%) – all of course with the ranges and confidence of the early April poll of polls.

With these numbers, the Election outcome picture is entirely different. Not only would Cameron not be Prime Minister of right, he wouldn’t even be leading the biggest Party! The Liberal Democrats become king-makers or coalition partners, sitting on more than 100 seats. This is a level they haven’t seen since Lloyd George was the last Liberal Prime Minister after the First World War nearly a century ago.

And such is the skew in our constituencies, and the impact of the small parties like the Nationalists, Labour would have the most Members of Parliament even though it would have the smallest share of the vote of the “big three” parties. By combining with the Liberal Democrats, either the Conservatives or Labour could command an overall majority!

These are of course only opinion polls. It’s real votes in real ballot boxes that count at the end of the day 9that day being May 6th). But Clegg and his Liberal Democrats are suddenly more credible than ever nationally (despite running many of the major cities in England) and they’ve energised the Election, especially among younger voters.

There are two more debates, the next one on Thursday. Anything can happen. But at least for now, in the UK, politics is no longer boring!