UK Election 2010: Quick Reference Guide

The UK Parliament which started under the Premiership of Tony Blair and changed mid-term with the same Labour Party, though with Gordon Brown as PM, is now facing re-election on May 6, 2010. Since the 2005 Election all three main political parties have switched leaders.

The UK Political system centers on the House of Commons (equivalent to the US Congress) with some 650 members of parliament (MPs - Congressmen) each responsible for a geographic constituency (US - Congressional District). Unlike the US system of mid-term elections of their Congressmen and women the UK system involves all MPs being eligible for re-election at a General Election under a first-past-the-post (ie. most votes wins) system. The number of MPs each Party garners leads to the Party with the most being chosen to form the Government by Her Majesty, the Queen (the British Head of State).

2001 Election Statistics 2005 Election Statistics
Labour - 413 Labour - 356 (324 seats required for a political majority)
Conservative - 166 Conservative - 198
Liberal Democrat - 52 Liberal Democrat - 62

Total votes cast - 26.3m - 27.1m

Political surveys (polls) conducted throughout the election show a tight race with Labour trailing the opposition Conservative Party. However, the rise of the Liberal Democrats, in part through the Conservative blunder of allowing them fair and equal air-time in the first three televised Prime-Ministerial debates makes a coalition Labour-Liberal party more likely. The last precedent for this was during the early 1970s and the dark days of the OPEC oil crisis. Of course, the outcome of this was the election of a Conservative administration which held office for near two decades thereafter.

The election I think can be seen as a re-run of the 1992 election. Although the Conservative Government of John Major was seen as weak the electorate were just not ready to trust Labour. Whilst a coalition or lame-duck Labour win will preserve some careers the likelihood of a conservative government following the next Labour or coalition administration is 100% likely. Coalitions do not get re-elected.

However, for the Labour Party one could suspect a quick putsch to remove Gordon Brown within 12 months of a election victory. If the Conservatives will inherit the next part of the UK political story, a few Labour leaders-in-waiting will want to get their place in history secured - and fast.

A Conservative loss traditionally triggers the resignation of the leader and a change. One could suspect William Hague's moment has come to re-assert his mantel as the most likely next Conservative Prime Minister. I remember meeting him and his wife Ffion at Conservative Central Office in the early 2000's - she wore knee high leather boots.