The McCain plan for Powell and Schwarznegger ?

Whitehall village ponders the role of two key players on the political scene who have instant name recognition, respect and generally are still in the game.

California governor and former Hollywood star, Arnold Schwarznegger has done an admirable job of running the state since taking office amid electricity cuts galore.  He cannot run there forever, and cannot be President or Vice-President due to being of non-American birth.  Yet he gave a key state's backing to McCain early on.

Governor Schwarznegger for Secretary of Defense or Homeland Security - you heard it here first - he would be good, and the bad guys abroad will remember the Terminator movies...

Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and Secretary of State Colin Powell is more enigmatic.  One of the most impressive individuals I have seen in my own lifetime, he was very vague in his memoirs about his political ambitions, and some would see as being finished after the Iraq intelligence debacle providing a rationale for the invasion in 2003.

When interviewed at the weekend he ranked the candidates (after sustained probing on the issue) as "McCain (R), Obama (D) and Clinton (D)".  Thinking about the arithmetic would Powell be a good foil against Obama ?  Clinton he probably has no love lost with after enduring battles with the Clinton I White House over homosexuality in the military.

For the Obama camp, Powell would be a great asset - uniquely versed in foreign and defense policy, African-American and with global recognition - would he be back at State or Defense under an Obama Presidency ?

I would watch both of these Gentlemen with interest. You heard it here first.

US election 2008: A strategic pause for thought

Today is one of the key dates in the US election, not for it being a particular state primary, but rather for the state of the contest and the key choices which campaign strategists, and the candidates themselves need to address.

Candidate Barack Obama's triple victory last night puts him ahead of rival Hilary Clinton for the first time.  Republican John McCain was meeting in Washington with Republicans to build support for him as the ideal Party candidate.  Critical issues.  This post seeks to identify the key questions for each of the players, not to mention the two parties - Republican and Democrat.

Democrats

For the candidates, the voting system used in the Primaries, that of proportional representation will guarantee a nip-and-tuck race through until the convention - unless one candidate stumbles fundamentally or runs out of campaign finance.

The Clinton camp are trying to dictate the ground on which this stage of the Primaries will be fought - that of televised one-on-one debates, where she comes across well.  The Obama team favour rallies to get their man's personality and message across, as they lack name recognition vis-a-viz their opponent.

Hilary took a loan to finance her campaign in the past week of $5 million and has lost her campaign manager and Deputy.  Obama's team, it feels, have the momentum raising $7 million in the past few days alone.

This all suggests a battle which could end nastily for the Party - any deal done at the Convention would weaken the Party, a prolonged Primary battle will exhaust treasure chests ahead of the real test - the fight against the Republicans.   Will either candidate back down, or accept the Vice President role - right now, no.  I doubt personally that Obama would take Hilary as VP, given that he would get "2 for 1" with former President Bill Clinton.  Hilary would find it challenging to accept Obama - though no candidate has commented on the VP slot as yet.

Republicans

John McCain seems to have a more straight forward run through the Party convention.  Mike Huckabee comes across well on Television, though his religious roots will prevent making significant inroads - CNN forecast recently that if Huckabee won every remaining Primary he would still come short of the McCain vote - and McCain won three more Primaries last night.

The four big issues for the McCain camp are as follows;

1. Rallying the Republican Party to his banner.

2. Becoming more articulate on key election issues beyond national security - health care, economy, immigration etc.

3. Raising funds fast to fight the Democrat money machine.

4. Choosing the right running mate.

No easy answers, however for the moment at least McCain has freedom of thought to work through them.

Republican Romney retires from campaign

Management consultants this morning, and Bain & Company's office in Washington in particular, must be ruing the announcement yesterday lunchtime saw by Mitt Romney of his intention to suspend his effort to be selected as the Republican nominee in the forthcoming 2008 US Presidential election.

Suspension is a technical term, in effect retirement, whereby Romney does not lose the electoral college votes achieved so far should he wish to reenter the campaign.

Pundits suggested reasons for Romney's withdrawal as including - an obsession with PowerPoint slides and data, not wanting to be seen as "beating up the old Guy" (John McCain) who would likely win anyway, and Romney's religion. Aides also dropped the usual rumours about wanting to position himself for the future.

Whitehall Village sees it slightly differently.  McCain has been reliant on splitting the opposition vote between Romney and Huckabee to beat them both and we suspect two issues to underpin Romney's withdrawal;

1. Huckabee won more states on Super Tuesday than Romney anticipated - splitting the religious vote and thereby denying him the chance to be a serious contender for the nomination.

2. The data will have shown a poor Return On Investment (ROI) in terms of expenditure per vote on the campaign (Any "Bainies" on the campaign team will be keeping a low profile I am certain).  See our earlier posting for further details.  The Bain website today leads by informing prospective Clients that Bain enables them to outperform the market by 4 to 1.  Not in political electioneering obviously...

Mike Huckabee's comment immediately after Super Tuesday seems eerily prescient that, "It's now a two man race - and I am one of them".

Cicero: "The sinews of elections... are infinite money"

Apologies to the Roman thinker for misquoting him in the title.  However substituting "war" for "elections" is highly appropriate in terms of thinking about where the lead candidates for the US 2008 election are at financially.  This is shortly after news that Hilary Clinton is adding $5 million of her own money to her campaign and her staff are going without money this month.

The Federal Election Commission records campaign fundraising data, namely amounts raised and spent.  The latest data as at 31 December 2007 is as follows:

Democrats

Hilary Clinton  Raised: $118.3m Spent: $80.3m Retained: $38m

Barack Obama Raised: $103.8m Spent: $85.2m Retained: $18.6m

Comment: Obama, lacking the national name recognition of Clinton early in the campaign has had to invest more to put his name about.

Republicans

John McCain Raised: $42.0m Spent: $39.1m Retained: $2.9m

Mitt Romney Raised: $90.1m Spent: $87.6m Retained: $2.5m

Mike Huckabee Raised: $8.9m Spent: $7.1m Retained: $1.8m

Comment: Romney did an amazing fundraising job in a time when the Republicans are down-at-heel.  However when looking at current standings in terms of electoral votes has achieved a very poor "bang-for-the-buck".

The aftermath of Super Tuesday

I woke up this morning to discover the outcome of one of the key days in the US 2008 election primary season, known as "Super Tuesday" where some 24 states vote for their ideal Democrat or Republican candidate.

Due to nuances of the Party voting systems (Democrats use a form of proportional representation whereas the Republicans use first-past-the-post) a direct comparison of votes and voting trends is inappropriate.

The key outcomes of the evening are that for the Democrats, Hilary Clinton remains ahead but  failed to extend her lead - Barack Obama's campaign on the day resulted in a near-tie in winning electoral college votes.

For the Republicans Huckabee did better than may assumed, Mitt Romney worse and McCain - although the star performer does not yet have the point required to take it easy and start preparing for battle with the "real enemy" - the opposition Party.

Senator McCain's Super Tuesday ?

I started the morning at the Rockerfeller Center in New York to see Senator John McCain's early morning rally to start off his "Super Tuesday" campaign. I may have surprised Channel 4 news anchor Jon Snow by cheerily yelling "Good morning Jon Snow" in a British accent in the middle of NY before 7am.

McCain was joined on the rostrum by former NY mayor and recent competitor for the Republican nomination, Rudy Guliani. Other supporters included Democrat Senator Joe Lieberman (who was Vice President in Al Gore's unsuccessful campaign in 2000) and former Governor Tom Ridge, who was the first head of the Department for Homeland Security (DHS). family were in attendance also namely McCain's wife and sprightly mother. Lastly a cluster of Nixon-offspring were present involved in various ways in the campaign.

The speech was principally about security and Iraq - maybe a necessary play to the voters of New York who endured 9/11. However I could not help feeling that McCain felt happier marching to that drumbeat over the economy and I feel he could struggle as the campaign agenda moves into less familiar waters.

Music included the theme to the "Rocky" movies on McCain's enterance and then on departure the old hit Johnny B. Goode by Chuck Berry "go, Johnny, go go go". Lets hope the nomination translates into a budget for music closer to the key voting demographic...

The ghost at the party - running mates

There has been, perhaps appropriately at this stage, no substantive talk of the issue of Vice-Presidential running mates for the lead candidates in the US election.  Much was made of the Democrat debate where Clinton and Obama were posed the question of working together and their diplomatic dance which ensued.

Yet, with John Edwards departing the race it does raise the question - who would the front runners take as running mates ?  It is curious that Edwards has not declared in favour of Clinton or Obama having departed the race before the key test tomorrow.

California is a key state and Governor Schwartznegger has declared for John McCain - yet as he was not born in the USA cannot run with the Senator.  Perhaps a role as Head of Homeland Security or Secretary of Defense would be appropriate (one can but dream of the ensuing headlines...).

"Super Tuesday" - what's at stake for those unfamiliar with US electoral processes

Tomorrow, twenty-four states go to the polls.  At stake are votes which determine who will be the nominated Democrat and Republican candidate to fight the 2008 election, and hopefully become President early in 2009.

The four main candidates so far have won some points towards the total required to win the nomination.  For the Democrats, 2,025 votes are needed to secure the nomination of which Hilary Clinton has 232 and Obama 158.  For the Republicans, 1,191 votes are required of which John McCain has 97 and Mitt Romney 92.  See below for the votes up for grabs tomorrow and the polls for the lead candidates:

NY Post published polls (Feb 4th, 2008)

State D votes R votes Clinton Obama McCain Romney

Alabama  60 48 +6% -- +23%    --

Alaska 18 29 -- -- --     --

Arkansas 47 34 +40% -- --     --

Arizona 67 53 +2% -- +9%     --

California 441 173 +2% -- +8%     --

Colorado 71 46 -- +2% --    +19%

Conneticut 60 30 -- +4% +19%     --

Delaware 23 18 +2% -- +6%     --

Georgia 103 72 -- +6% +6%     --

Idaho 23 -- -- -- --     --

Illinois 185 70 -- +21% +23%     --

Kansas 41 -- +5% -- --     --

Mass. 121 43 +24% -- --      +23%

Minnesota 88 41 +7% -- +24%     --

Missouri 88 58 +6% -- +14%     --

Montana -- 25 -- -- --     --

New Jersey 127 52 +1% -- +31%     --

New Mexico n/a n/a -- -- --     --

New York 281 101 +16% -- +26%     --

N. Dakota 21 26 -- -- --     --

Oklahoma 47 41 +24% -- +23%     --

Tenn. 85 55 +14% -- +9%     --

Utah 29 36 +24% -- --     --

W. Virginia -- 30 -- -- -- --

LA Democrat debate: experience is a two-edged sword...

Last night saw the last Democrat public debate between Senators Hilary Clinton and Barack Obama, competing for the Party nomination in the 2008 US election. 

It was a more civilised affair than pundits had imagined, after a fortnight of sniping between Hilary, Barack and Hilary's husband, former President Bill Clinton.  Little surprise really, as the audience for this debate was less the general public, and more the Party grandees who will be key in supporting the candidates with votes, prestige and money - lots of money in the coming months.

My key observations from the debate are as follows;

1. Hilary gave a very good opening speech - though it was clear she spent an immense amount of time memorising it.

2. Obama seemed a little daunted in the early stages of the debate - the dynamic was very different from the early "beauty parades" with several participants.  He bounced back as the debate proceeded and made a number of quick comments and made the audience laugh.

3. The candidates see Iraq as an issue between them, with Obama coming off better as having been against the 2003 conflict, officially, since Day 1 a'la McCain.

4. It is Clear that Hilary is positioning herself as the most experienced candidate "ready on Day one" (though no direct mention of Bill), versus Obama "looking forward, not past", "change", "yes we can" etc.

5. Health care is a major issue - and the differences are largely technical and though important - I suspect the electorate will not have the patience to understand. Obama's idea to televise all negotiations on C-Span is noble, though unlikely to succeed in a nation with hundreds of TV channels and a 30 second attention span.

6. Immigration will be an important issue, as inevitably when economic times are perceived to be difficult people start looking for scapegoats.  The campaign is about the thorny issue of how corporate America turns a blind eye to "illegals" to deliver ever cheaper goods and services, whilst not being 'invaded' - a problem not uncommon in other countries.

One thing about the obvious experience former First Lady and Senator Clinton is that it is hard learnt, and like a child - you have to have the opportunity to make mistakes to be able to learn, adapt and succeed.  I suspect, should she succeed in winning the nomination, that the Republicans will remind the American voting public of Somalia, Hilary's lead on health care reform, the failed attacks on al-Quaeda, failure to intervene Bosnia and Rwanda, and of course the WhiteWater scandal.

On a final note, the bulk of the audience at the Kodak theatre (location of the Oscar awards ceremony) were from the Hollywood media set - is it withdrawal symptoms from the cancellation of this year's Golden Globes - or like the Germans with their beach towels - bagging a seat early ?