The 2012 US Presidential election: The more things change, the less they change...

November 7th, 2012

The morning after voting for the 2012 US Presidential election, the Democrat incumbent, Barack Obama has been returned by the US electorate for a second term of office through until the 2016 elections.

Watching the coverage last night on the major television networks brought into sharp relief some of the key talking points of this campaign. Firstly, polling data has exploded in this election making it more complicated to get a real feel for the election.

Second, it would appear that the Democrat campaign strategy was predicated on micro-targeting of key counties within each state and working from the micro up to a macro electoral victory. As last night progressed analysts were going over the arithmetic of electoral college votes for the Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, noting that "Plan A (Ohio), Plan B (Virginia), Plan C and Plan D" were steadily falling out of reach offering no where to go.

Polls led to states being called with an overall result being worked out and speeches given with only some 65% of votes cast actually being counted and categorized.

Interestingly, the Democrat campaign strategy likely was guided by a determination to avoid having to rely on the state of Florida which proved so cauterizing in the 2000 election for Democrat challenger and former-Vice President Al Gore.

Voter demographics which played towards President Obama included young, single women (for whom the Republican position on Abortion remains contentious) and Hispanic voters (since Bill Clinton the Republican push for tougher immigration continues to jar). White males voted for republican candidate Mitt Romney by a wide margin though could be suggested as representing yesterday's demographic.

Watching the networks one of the more interesting outcomes was that of the Fox News channel. Republican campaign expert Karl Rove became frustrated with the network calling the result on particular states with a quarter of the votes yet to be counted. Fox also called the overall result for the Democrat President before CNN in what seemed to be an ideological race to the bottom which Fox was determined to win.

Looking ahead, three key lessons for the Republican Party could be suggested as including;

1. To create more ideological room around women's rights and neutralize the Democrat advantage on abortion.
2. To adopt a more pro-immigration stance which does less to alienate Hispanic voters.
3. To remain focused on the economy, adopting easier to digest messaging as to how the Republican part is aligned with the needs of the average citizen's wallet.