Wednesday 3 November 2010

"It's all about the economy" redux - US Mid-Term elections outcome 2010

The US Congress has been lost by the Democrats affecting dramatically the ability of the Obama Presidency to continue its agenda of change. Congress is now split 185 (D) to 239 (R) seats. The US Senate 51 (D) to 45 (R).

It seems strange to consider it barely two years ago that the Democrats under their new President seemed able to fundamentally shift American politics and the distribution of wealth by the state.

Fears concerning the state of the economy impacted on suburban young professionals who flocked to the Obama banner in 2008. The elderly concerned about potential harm to their health-care entitlement or their pensions drove them to the ballot box. The first time youth vote which Obama captured in 2008 gave the Democrats cause to lay claim to a 'multi-million email address list' which could be mobilised at grass-roots level to continue the change agenda. Last night, as one CNN political talking-head put it, "that mailing list is out of work and probably changed address".

The Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were not crucial to this election - the armed forces seem removed from the fray and national security is not playing as an issue this time around.

The tea-party influence on certain candidate selection for Senate seats cost the Republican Party dear - they could almost of reached parity with the Democrats were that not the case. 'celebrity' candidates in California were also swept away.

Personally, this is not a fatal wound to the re-election chances of President Obama. Replacements for departed members of his administration need to come out fighting - though with a modicum of common-sense - to get a compromise health care bill. This, coupled with further deterioration in Afghanistan/Pakistan could put him in the 2012 position of fighting an unsuccessful war abroad and failing to make change at home.

The Republican Party need to understand how to harness the Tea-Party and deliver on their promises without losing the center-ground for 2012.

Just the kind of criticisms leveled at the previous incumbent on completing two terms of office...

No comments: