US Election 2008: Key elements of the strategic battlefield

There are three issues in thinking through the strategies being employed by Democrat and Republican Presidential candidates John McCain (R) and Barack Obama (D); State electoral college votes, demographics, and ethnicity.

A: Electoral College votes (Top 10 out of 538 total votes with 270 as the target for election victory represent nearly half (47%) or 256 votes).

1. California - 55
2. Texas - 34
3. New York - 31
4. Florida - 27
5. Illinois - 21
6. Pennsylvania - 21
7. Ohio - 20
8. Michigan - 17
9. Georgia - 15
10. North Carolina - 15

B: Voter Demographics (using US Government census report concerning the November 2004 Presidential election).

Age group numbers % voted % registered
18-24 47 58
55+ 72 79

74 percent of women and 71 percent of men entitled to vote were registered at the time of the 2004 election. In addition, of the 215 million registered voters some 24 million are veterans of the armed services.


C: Ethnicity (again, data derived from US Census of Nov 2004 election)
Ethic Group registered % Voted % number voters
White 73.6 65.4 162.9m
Black 68.7 60.0 23.3m
Asian 51.8 44.1 6.2m
Hispanic 57.9 47.2 16.0m

The final 2008 US Presidential debate: re-arranging deck-chairs on the Titanic ?

I attended the final Presidential debate of the 2008 election in the United States last night, held on Long Island adjacent to New York City at Hofstra University.

The experience itself said much about American politics in the modern age. As an exercise in organisation it was quite amazing. Clearly security is the number one concern in the minds of the Secret Service - Hofstra University is relatively remote and driving in, one could not help but notice the concrete barracades, police cars on every street corner and probably most of the East Coast Secret Service contingent, whom I must say were courteous and helpful to the last man and woman.

The students were kept amused and, by and large, away from the debate hall with a lottery to which some 6,000 students signed up for a few tickets to attend in person.

The media were provided with an excellent filing centre in a vast sports hall from which to watch and comment on proceedings. Additionally a hospitality tent provided by Anheuser-Busch (thank you Cindy McCain!) provided a mix of food and drink and a chance to hob-nob with the spin doctors and news anchors - plus get commerative mugs and other merchandise.

The debate hall itself was the political equivalent of the Oscars or even the Superbowl. Mitt Romney, Hilary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, Governor David Patterson were all present and correct to name a few.

The debate itself was interesting from the perspective of watching other peoples reactions. In the media centre journalists found the "Joe the Plumber" debate amusing and also seemed to enjoy watching McCain battle against a very cool, almost cold Senator Obama. It had the atmosphere of a title fight where people were egging McCain on to land more punches.

A very interesting point of contrast in campaign strategy was in evidence at the media centre. Hofstra students were present, helpfully distributing transcripts of segments of the debate to a hungry media croud.

Meanwhile a team of McCain*Palin students were delivering one page rebuttals of Obama policy synchronised to some seventeen (to my count) elements of the debate. No sooner had the Joe the Plumber story on tax been told than a blue sheet outlining the detail behind the flaws in the Democrat proposal landed next to me. Very interesting, as there was no riposte from the Obama camp other than SMS messages - which apparently students outside the debate enclosure found exciting.

Personally, shaping the media output to the nation seems to best SMS texts to those already likely to vote to you. One up strategically to the McCain team.

Getting out of the debate afterwards was sheer hell. No buses, no knowledge of how to get where led to some amusing discussions amongst the variety of people mingling with students hoping to see their idols. Of course, the security ensured that both candidates and their entourages were long gone into the night and the final few weeks of campaigning ahead of November 5th.

Notes from the edge of the financial volcano

Standing on the precipice in New York City about one mile from Wall Street the changes in dynamics for both the US election 2008 and world economy can be felt.

Election 2008 has become a side-show.  Whomever wins the Presidency, they will be faced with the nightmare of three months trying to build an administration whilst simultaneously trying to stem the negative tide of economic news and investor sentiment.  

Warren Buffet will be appointed to a senior role by either Party - you heard it here first.

The economy is sliding fast as liquidity fears are being realised - and a'la Hobbes everyone is seeking to preserve their own position.  An interesting question is what is happening to the Chinese economic miracle ?  time to fasten seat-belts.