It will be interesting to see if this prompts Senator Clinton to forfeit any interest in the VP role.
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Election 2008, Democrats, Barack Obama, Hilary Clinton
Wednesday, 4 June 2008
US Elections post-primaries: Emergence of the hired guns
Senator Obama today appointed a three person Troika to evaluate Vice-Presidential candidates. An interesting mechanism for justifying the final choice.
It will be interesting to see if this prompts Senator Clinton to forfeit any interest in the VP role.
It will be interesting to see if this prompts Senator Clinton to forfeit any interest in the VP role.
Tuesday, 3 June 2008
Election 2008: Game theoretic options favour the Republican nominee
Today is the day of the final primaries. Senator John McCain has sewn up the Republican nomination for sometime and has wasted no time in building a war chest for the autumn.
The Democrats have struggled and appear to be on the cusp of having Senator Obama securing the nomination - unless Hilary Clinton has some skullduggery planned in terms of winning over the Superdelegates with husband Bill.
Whilst Obama is the undoubted winner of the primary process, coming from relative obscurity to international attention, the election is more murky. Vice-Presidential candidates historically are not the ultimate arbiter of victory, but may be more important than at first glance.
Obama is weak in security, McCain in the economy. Sidelining Hilary Clinton enables the Obama camp to avoid the menage-a-trois of Obama, Bill and Hill however risks alienating a swathe of Democrat voters.
Should Hilary overturn Obama's position it will be seen as highly contentious - akin to the Republicans in Florida (which was a while ago).
McCain stands to benefit in both scenarios despite the proximity of George Bush and a completely invisible Dick Cheney. The key question is which VP candidate for McCain neutralises best the advantage of his rivals ?
Mitt Romney has strong business credentials, but is Mormon (maybe good for the Religious right vote), but risky given recent scandals in Texas. Condaleeza Rice was a name thrown around a month or two ago, but has diminished.
So, to summarise;
Obama & X = McCain advantage (upset Hilary voters)
Hilary & X = McCain advantage (upset Obama voters)
Democrat advantage = McCain + ?
The Democrats have struggled and appear to be on the cusp of having Senator Obama securing the nomination - unless Hilary Clinton has some skullduggery planned in terms of winning over the Superdelegates with husband Bill.
Whilst Obama is the undoubted winner of the primary process, coming from relative obscurity to international attention, the election is more murky. Vice-Presidential candidates historically are not the ultimate arbiter of victory, but may be more important than at first glance.
Obama is weak in security, McCain in the economy. Sidelining Hilary Clinton enables the Obama camp to avoid the menage-a-trois of Obama, Bill and Hill however risks alienating a swathe of Democrat voters.
Should Hilary overturn Obama's position it will be seen as highly contentious - akin to the Republicans in Florida (which was a while ago).
McCain stands to benefit in both scenarios despite the proximity of George Bush and a completely invisible Dick Cheney. The key question is which VP candidate for McCain neutralises best the advantage of his rivals ?
Mitt Romney has strong business credentials, but is Mormon (maybe good for the Religious right vote), but risky given recent scandals in Texas. Condaleeza Rice was a name thrown around a month or two ago, but has diminished.
So, to summarise;
Obama & X = McCain advantage (upset Hilary voters)
Hilary & X = McCain advantage (upset Obama voters)
Democrat advantage = McCain + ?
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